The Spanish Grand Prix takes place this weekend so check out our preview and best bets.
F1 betting tips: Catalunya Grand Prix
2pts Lance Stroll to finish in the points at 8/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pt Lance Stroll top six finish at 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
Race preview
The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is the ultimate test for F1 cars with all variations of corners and combinations designed to expose the weaknesses of each car. This means it is the perfect venue to introduce the most significant mid season rule change since 2011, when the order was shaken up in Silverstone by a blown-diffusor regulation that resulted in a Fernando Alonso win. I doubt the Spaniard will have his sights set on a repeat but this has become the most important race of the season.
Teams have been eyeing up this race since the winter break as the FIA announced that stricter static load tests on front wings will be introduced from Spain, resulting in all teams having to design stiffer wings. Rumours are that McLaren will be the most impacted, with the chasing pack (Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes) cautiously optimistic this can propel them to the top of the order.
In of a betting prospect there are several angles I have considered. Laying McLaren for the championship at 1.04 is tempting, and so is a dart at a Ferrari driver to the win the championship at triple figure prices. Mercedes have declared they are already fully compliant with this regulation change which caught my eye, but after their recent struggles they are hard to back. Friday practice will be key to outright betting for the remainder of the season, keep your eyes peeled.
I have landed on Aston Martin to be ready for this change through backing LANCE STROLL this weekend. The Silverstone based team introduced a massive upgrade package in Imola two races ago which propelled them from the rear of the field to a top five car. With the following race being Monaco, I am betting that this upgrade was not just built for two races and is already configured in line with the new regulations. Stroll had a miserable Monaco after challenging for points in Imola, and with a return to a more car dependent rather than driver dependent venue he can have a repeat of his Imola weekend.
CLICK HERE to back Stroll to finish in the points with Sky Bet
If this logic proves true and they are already ready for this change, it would be no surprise for them to challenge the big four like they have in recent seasons. At similar prices I was torn on Fernando Alonso to get a home podium and Stroll top six, but have opted for a dart on Stroll top six.
CLICK HERE to back Stroll to finish in the top six with Sky Bet
Another team that are prepared for this regulation change are Sauber. In recent races, the upgrade package that they are bringing this weekend is all that NICO HULKENBERG would speak about in press conferences. Clearly he is not enjoying being in the worst car, albeit a season of transition before he leads the Audi works team from next year.
We do not know much about the upgrade other than the positivity "the Hulk" has shown, and I will trust his experience with his comments about upgrades. If this upgrade works as intended, they can the midfield pack and challenge for points at a big price.
CLICK HERE to back Hulkenberg to finish in the points with Sky Bet
What about the bigger names?
Lando Norris
Ended his win drought by winning the most prestigious of them all last time out. Incredible qualifying lap breaking the Monaco lap record. Will have his confidence back. Drove well here last year. This weekend will be all about adapting to the new package and praying they still have an advantage over the field.
Oscar Piastri
Slight mistake (if you call losing a tenth of a second a mistake) at the Nouvelle chicane cost him his chance to win a third of racing's Triple Crown last time out. Aim this weekend is to adapt better than his teammate to the new package.
Max Verstappen
His season and Red Bull future hinge on this weekend. He has done a stellar job to still be in the title fight given the performance deficit to McLaren so far. His car has not utilised flexi front wings to the extent of the McLaren. Could win by 30 seconds, could be nowhere, could win every remaining race this season. 10/1 he wins eight more.
Ferrari
Team boss Fred Vasseur has been very optimistic about this regulation change. Ferrari had utilised flexi wings to the end of last year which saw them win the constructors. They are likely the only challengers to McLaren given the high performing line up they have if they were to gain significant performance here. My best bet for the Tifosi is watch free practice one, and if it looks like they are back then bet on them for the constructors title.
Posted at 1000 BST on 21/05/25
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