Ben Coley sides with two Frenchmen and one player under the UAE flag as he attempts to unpick the Hero Indian Open.
Golf betting tips: Hero Indian Open
2pts e.w. Adrien Saddier at 28/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Ewen Ferguson at 45/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Shubhankar Sharma at 55/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Adrian Otaegui at 55/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Nacho Elvira at 80/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Two of the last three DP World Tour events have been reduced to 54 holes, the latest in Singapore last week, but headaches will come from a difference source in the Indian Open, held once more at DLF Golf and Country Club.
The weather for this tournament is set fair and there might actually be players hoping for a breeze to somewhat mitigate stifling temperatures, but the golf course? That’s going to drive a lot of them mad, because that seems to be precisely what it was built to do.
Several years ago, I wrote somewhat negatively about it. Without going over old ground, my feelings were and are that this really is a bit of a silly course and having made that clear, I received a lengthy message from Gary Player Design – although in my head it came from the hand of Mr Player himself.
That message was about as ludicrous as the 17th hole at DLF, but there was one comparison which, while still very amusing, has a kernel of truth to it – the idea that DLF’s natural bedfellow in the pantheon of great golf courses is none other than Augusta National.
You don’t need me to tell you that the two couldn’t be further apart in many ways, but one thing you can do at Augusta, which you can do at DLF, is get on scoring runs. Equally true is that you can make small mistakes which are magnified, albeit in very different ways (which we can simply categorise as ‘good’ and ‘bad’).
Last year, Keita Nakajima made 27 birdies and an eagle. Runner-up Sebastian Soderberg made an outrageous 29 birdies and was in fact six-under through seven holes in round one, only to run up an eight at the eighth. That day, Soderberg ended up making nine birdies in total but shooting a one-under 71.
Wait a minute, I think I have a second Augusta likeness: approach play. Soderberg was the best iron player in the 2024 field on 2024 form and finished second. Yannik Paul proved to be the best iron player in the 2023 field on 2023 form and finished second, too, and most of the traps laid by this course are waiting to snare mishit approaches.
In fact this is one course where you probably won’t go too far wrong by returning to the old-world statistics, fairways and greens. Nakajima (30th) and Soderberg (27th) both figured highly in the latter and when I think of DLF, which I try not to do, it’s players like Joost Luiten, surprise champion Stephen Gallacher, and runner-up Beef Johnston who come to mind.
Returning to that possibility to make a string of birdies or a ruinously big number, I should stress that really for the most part it’s been difficult to overcome the sort of golf Soderberg played. Almost half of Nakajima’s mistakes came over the final few holes when miles clear; a year earlier, champion Marcel Siem and compatriot Paul made just 11 between them.
Fairways, greens and avoiding big numbers is Luiten all over and he’ll surely play well, but the overall balance of his form doesn’t justify being second or third in the market. That place should perhaps belong to ROMAIN LANGASQUE, so he’s the headline bet.
Langasque has done everything but win over the past couple of seasons and when his second DP World Tour title does arrive, there’s every chance it’ll come under demanding conditions.
Last year’s near-misses included the Nedbank Challenge (held at another Player-designed course), a tough Danish Golf Championship, the fiddly Soudal Open and here in India, where he defied a generally slow start to the campaign to finish fifth.
He had shown some signs of improvement in Singapore to somewhat telegraph his prospects and coming back a year later, with a wrist injury having seemingly cleared up, his form is better: five cuts made in six, the other missed narrowly, and a long-game which is coming nicely to the boil.
In fact to see him rank sixth in strokes-gained approach in the SA Open and then seventh last week is enormously encouraging, because that aspect of his game has at times let him down. Not so these days and this correlates directly with the best overall body of work of his career, even if it’s gone unrewarded in of wins.
Langasque then looks primed for a third go at DLF. The first saw him finish a solid 34th as a rookie, then last year’s contending performance confirmed that he likes this place. He was eighth in fairways, 11th in greens and sixth in strokes-gained approach and while unable to sustain a pair of 66s to open up, it was his best golf so far that season.
Returning now with more substance to his form and having made just three mistakes in Singapore, where he enjoyed a bogey-free final round, this more demanding test will suit. The fact that he won at Celtic Manor, where stacks of DLF specialists have gone well, is further reason to believe he has an excellent chance.
In fact I’d only rate Nakajima’s better and the Japanese was tempting. He was runner-up on Sunday, an explosive return to form which saw him drop just two shots in 54 holes, but it must be said he made everything he looked at here last year and that probably won’t happen again.
ADRIEN SADDIER, sco Laporta and Jayden Schaper all make sense and based on this event’s propensity to go to a bang in-form golfer, perhaps because the course exposes any lack of confidence, the former is just preferred.
Saddier really is in the form of his life and he was the last man in with a chance to match Richard Mansell on Sunday, albeit doing so would’ve required holing his approach to the par-five 18th.
A standard two-putt birdie instead sealed third place, adding to 19th in Joburg and seventh in Kenya and extending an excellent run of form which stretches back a year now, to when he first started hinting at what might be to come.
Over the past 12 months he’s been one of the best iron players on the DP World Tour and his overall tee-to-green game, built on being one of the most accurate drivers around, has him ranked sixth on the circuit among those to have played 20-plus rounds.
His two missed cuts since July both came about due to hopeless putting but that club has been strong throughout his past five starts, to the point that right now he’s one of the most rounded, complete players on the circuit.
Yes, he’s been around a while and is still to win, but Saddier has long held a lot of potential and as we’re now seeing it, I could well see him winning at a course which is so much more suitable than a wet, long Laguna National.
Saddier made his first start here in 2018 and was third around round one before fading, then returned in 2023 to be eighth at halfway but again labour at the weekend. He arrives this time in a much better place, with strong form at courses like Le Golf National and Valderrama correlating well with course specialists like Luiten and Paul.
He’s given the nod over Laporta on the basis that of the two, he’s more likely to putt well. As for Schaper, that club has just abandoned him over the past few weeks and as he’s shortened in the betting anyway, I’m just about willing to overlook his clear potential.
Next is EWEN FERGUSON, who could follow on from wins for close friends Calum Hill and Mansell.
Ferguson was greenside to celebrate with both players, first in Joburg and then last week, and while no doubt frustrated to have made a few mistakes in Singapore will hopefully have seen the positives within that performance while drawing inspiration from his practice partners.
At a course which is not really ideal for him, the Scot continued to drive the ball well, improved his approach play to the extent that it was not far off the levels we’ve come to expect and, while a bit sloppy around the greens, gained strokes with the putter for the second event running.
Putting has been Ferguson’s nemesis but hasn’t stopped him winning three times in his last 80-odd DP World Tour starts and all three titles came after hints of promise, rather than smack-you-in-the-face form which might’ve forced in his price.
Certainly he could’ve gone off much shorter for this had he shown a bit more in the run-up but I like what I’ve seen now that he returns to DLF, where he made the cut and finished midfield after a quiet final round and generally bad putting display on debut.
More on the greens this time and Ferguson, whose three wins all came at courses which are hard to overpower, could serve up a reminder of his relative class when conditions are set up for his fairways-and-greens game, as they are here.
He’s been inside the top 20 on the DP World Tour in bogey avoidance in each of the last two seasons and is not far off this time despite a generally quiet start to the year. This might be the week everything clicks.
I’ll it that I’m slightly wary of siding with SHUBHANKAR SHARMA in an event he’d dearly love to win, but I can’t let the best of the home hopes go at such an inviting price.
Sharma has played in this every year since 2017 and never has he been 50s and change. In fact he’s generally been much shorter, between 10/1 and 28s, and while his form over the past 12 months raises some questions, a weak renewal mitigates that.
He’s also started to show a bit more lately. Sharma was seventh after the first round in a windy SA Open before fading, opened 66-65 to lie third at halfway in Joburg, and last week saw things out a little better for another midfield finish in Singapore.
He’s another who wouldn’t have wanted those rain-softened conditions in a tournament won by powerful driver Mansell, and those low rounds to begin all three events hopefully reveal that he’s close to putting it all together when the course is more suitable.
That happened in Italy last year, when he was the 54-hole leader in an event won by former DLF champion Siem, and as a short driver there are some courses where life is made very difficult for him.
Returning to DLF will surely help as he used to base himself here and owns the course record, a round of 64 which had him right in the mix seven years ago. His worst finish on the DP World Tour is 40th and while disappointing in the International Series event held here in February, that does at least mean he’s played the course recently.
Sharma missed his next two cuts on the number, another small indication that better things were coming. At 40s and bigger, it’s worth speculating that they might arrive when he really wants them to.
At similar odds, the UAE’s finest, ADRIAN OTAEGUI, is a smashing bet too.
He’s been 10th and 26th in two starts at DLF, confirming his suitability, and both those results came after he’d missed the cut on his previous start.
This time around he’s followed three narrow missed cuts, all by a single shot, with an eye-catching 25th in Joburg, where he made good ground before a modest final round saw him fall from 12th having started the final round ahead of winner Hill.
Second in strokes-gained approach there and as accurate as ever off the tee, the worry is that his putter is poor once more. However, it had been very good in his two previous starts and, as we saw when he won in China last May, it doesn’t need to be spectacular to win.
He’s another with strong records at Le Golf National and Valderrama and having struck the ball in his customarily excellent fashion here last year, it would only take the putting he showed in Kenya and Joburg to give this multiple winner an excellent chance.
Jeong Weon Ko was high on my list but he’s more than halved in price from last week and that makes him plenty short, whereas Paul’s price was enough to earn a second glance. He hit it better last week and will have taken something from seeing twin brother Jeremy contend on the PGA Tour, albeit his general form of late amounts to very little.
I wondered whether dynamite putter Joakim Lagergren might take to this but the prospect of too many stray drives is off-putting, and while Edoardo Molinari caught the eye last week after a good stint on the Nordic Golf League, I was hoping we might get a much bigger price.
My final selection then is NACHO ELVIRA.
He’s a former winner at Celtic Manor, like Langasque, and he in fact fended off the Frenchman plus the rest of the field to win for us in the Soudal Open less than a year ago.
Elvira’s game is all about quality iron play, some of the best on the circuit when on-song, but as a shorter and not always straight hitter he’s another with whom it pays to be particularly selective.
Sixth here in 2019, that did come after back-to-back runner-up finishes so he was clearly at the top of his game, but he’s not been far off producing something similar recently.
Again, Qatar and Kenya are venues he likes but Singapore wouldn’t be anything close to as good a fit on paper, yet he continued to strike the ball really well in finishing 20th, a significant step up on his missed cut there two years earlier.
Elvira has been the best iron player across his last two starts, ranking second and third, and if he can just avoid trouble off the tee this week could be a massive danger. At 66/1 and bigger, he’s a strong each-way candidate in an event where virtually everyone on my list was quite prominent in the betting.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 24/03/25
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