Ben Coley's final pre-tournament preview features two first-round leader selections at big prices, plus four from the three-balls coupon.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round one
1pt Fleetwood and Lawrence to win their three-balls at 11/2 (General)
1pt Vegas and McKibbin to win their three-balls at 5/1 (General)
0.5pt Fleetwood, Lawrence, Vegas & McKibbin at 40/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)
- Scroll down for first-round leader picks
Once upon a time, taking on the 20 club professionals who take up spots in the PGA Championship field was the best way to play the three-balls coupon. Unfortunately, more and more firms have stopped pricing these matches up and those that do have a better handle on them, which means they've pushed them out to more appropriate prices and cut the two touring pros with whom they're paired.
If you have the right s, there could still be some good options in round one of the PGA: Eugenio Chacarra, Keith Mitchell and Sami Valimaki for instance makes for a nice 11/2 treble of players who really should only have one other to worry about. But for the purposes of a column most readers will be able to put to use, I've focused on more conventional three-balls.
Fleetwood to beat Mickelson and Day (1249 BST)
TOMMY FLEETWOOD is a big player this week after a lovely primer in Philadelphia and, having played well on his last three starts at Quail Hollow, he looks just about as reliable as it gets outside the two players vying for favouritism.
Having sided with him at 50/1 over Christmas, I've since added a top Englishman bet and will make it a clean sweep in this winnable three-ball against two rivals who could step aside.
Phil Mickelson's form has nosedived since Augusta and his latest LIV Golf start was his worst for a long time. Having missed the cut in the Masters despite putting well, it's hard to see his errant long-game holding up under the heat of Quail Hollow, where once he was very comfortable. I doubt comfortable is a word we'll be using to describe his performance this week.
Jason Day isn't quite so easy to oppose but he withdrew again pre-tournament last week, the second time he's done so this spring. Combined with a few issues in his long-game lately, that makes him vulnerable to someone so reliable as Fleetwood.
Lawrence to beat Hall and Dunlap (1350 BST)
In case you hadn't seen or heard, Nick Dunlap is going through a total crisis with the driver. For context, over one round, he's the single worst driver on the PGA Tour, almost half a stroke worse than the player one place in front of him; over 72 holes he gives Rory McIlroy roughly 10 shots. His second-round fightback at Augusta was irable but there have been no signs of improvement off the tee in two starts since.
Around a long, soft Quail Hollow, where you simply have to hit driver often and well, he can be expected to run up some massive numbers and whatever price bookmakers put him in at for this would've felt too short. His pedigree and two limited partners placed a ceiling on that price that, right now, is too low. In fact I was amazed to see the first show come through and his odds not much north of 2/1.
It's not kind, but nor is it unfair to say that some of the 20 PGA professionals might've had stronger credentials.
None of this means he absolutely can't win but it's highly unlikely he does so and while many would assume that leaves the short-priced favourite, Harry Hall, as the one to be on, I rate THRISTON LAWRENCE the clear value call.
Lawrence has struggled badly in his debut PGA Tour campaign, making just two low-grade cuts, but his long-game has started to fire of late. It is superior to Hall's, significantly so, and while the latter deserves to be favourite, I don't mind betting against his short-game even over 18 holes.
I suspect Hall will rely almost totally on his elite chipping and putting if he's to shoot something competitive so while Lawrence's putter is a big concern, at the prices we can afford to chance it behaving for 18 holes. If it does, there's no reason he can't beat Hall pretty convincingly, with the fact that he's recently contended for a major another thing in his favour.
Vegas to beat Smylie and Campbell (1926 BST)
JHONATTAN VEGAS is my flier in a couple of specials markets this week and that's because he's a prodigious driver with Quail Hollow form, whose putter came to life in Texas last time out. Should be produce something around the field average on the greens, he could certainly enjoy a big week and perhaps threaten his previous best major finish, a tie for 22nd which came on a long, soft golf course.
In his pomp, Vegas was a regular fast-starter and he opened with a 63 last time, so a good score from his late tee-time could well be on the cards and I fancy him to get the better of Elvis Smylie and Brian Campbell.
Neither of these two are blessed with his power – Campbell in fact is just about the shortest driver on the PGA Tour – and with Smylie making his first start in the US, expectations have to be set low. The Aussie missed the cut by a long way on his Open debut last summer and while far from short, this might just be the longest and toughest tee-to-green test he's faced so far in his career.
It'll be a steep learning curve and if Vegas can avoid a shocker on the greens, he can boss things.
McKibbin to beat Kanaya and Bezuidenhout (1931 BST)
Takumi Kanaya has shown a bit more on the PGA Tour of late, notably when fifth in the Byron Nelson, but that depended almost entirely on a sensational putting week and he's going to find this much tougher.
The former amateur star is short off the tee and that's a big factor in his run of 10 successive major missed cuts, with the US Open and the PGA particularly difficult for players of his skill set. The only time he has made the weekend was in the 2019 Masters, where he finished 58th of 65 players.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout's record is better, having made 10 cuts in 17, but his best of 30th came when this event went to Kiawah Island in 2021. That made for a very different test, hence a very different leaderboard, and away from it Bezuidenhout's record in the PGA reads MC-MC-MC-MC.
Weak off the tee and with his putter not even reliable at the moment, he should struggle and with two short drivers in with him, this looks like a group TOM MCKIBBIN should be bossing, which he will most certainly do off the tee.
The youngster, LIV's winter g, is a fabulous driver of the ball, he's made both major cuts so far, and this course is made for him. It simply isn't made for the other of the group.
Golf betting tips: First-round leader
0.5pt e.w. Akshay Bhatia to lead after round one at 90/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Rickie Fowler to lead after round one at 100/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The last three first-round leaders in arguably the most competitive major of them all have been Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Xander Schauffele, who are three of the first four in the outright betting this week. Even over just 18 holes, class has won and we've seen that in the Masters as well, albeit Justin Rose was a fairly big price a month ago.
Ultimately it's hard to take a bullish view and bets should be struck accordingly, but I'll take two stabs from the early wave in RICKIE FOWLER and AKSHAY BHATIA.
Both started well last week and that's part of the reason for siding with them. The biggest-priced winner of this market in recent times, Brendon Todd, had been second after 18 holes a week earlier and some players do produce bursts of fast starts, something we've seen from Keith Mitchell lately.
Fowler has won this market in two US Opens and at the course where he made his PGA Tour breakthrough, he might just have one low round in him. Five top-10s at Quail Hollow show how comfortable he is here and he was eighth after day one of the 2017 PGA.
Bhatia's long-game has gone off the boil somewhat but that didn't stop him opening with a 63 last week, the fifth time already this year that he's ended round one inside the top 10.
His last first-round lead came in July last summer, following a run of low openers including when second a week earlier and sixth a week before that in a US Open. Prior to that burst, he'd been 11th after round one right before leading in Texas, and on two separate occasions during a brief Korn Ferry Tour stint, he was placed in this market in successive weeks.
He also has a bit of a local connection as his family moved to North Carolina in 2012, which perhaps played a small part in last summer's T12 at Pinehurst and could do something similar here, at a course he knows well and one at which he's shown hints of promise throughout three appearances to date.
Fast starts have been a habit for the talented left-hander and, from an early tee-time in this big field where soft greens might just get churned up as the day goes on, both he and Fowler appeal enough to advise two small bets.
Posted at 0755 BST on 14/05/25
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