Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Muirfield Village.
Golf betting tips: Memorial Tournament
1pt win Sepp Straka ‘without Scheffler’ at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Patrick Cantlay ‘without Scheffler’ at 16/1 (General)
History at Muirfield Village paints a pretty clear picture. Playing catch-up on Jack Nicklaus’ super-tough par 72 is very, very difficult. Each of the last 16 winners were in the top four after 54 holes and if that plays out again the winner will be one of Scottie Scheffler, Ben Griffin, Nick Taylor, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley or Jordan Spieth.
But even more scary for the chasers is the combination of history and current leader. Seven of the last 16 Memorial champions had a piece of the lead after 54 holes so with Scheffler occupying top spot here, the rest can just all go home, can’t they? The 4/11 certainly says so, those two numbers now flipped from his pre-tournament 11/4.
Scheffler put himself in position to make it three wins in four starts and defend his Memorial crown with four birdies in the final five holes on Saturday. That burst of scoring, after 13 straight pars, elevated him to 8-under - a shot in front of last week’s Colonial winner Ben Griffin, who at one point had got it to double digits under par before stumbling. Griffin is 9/2.
In normal circumstances, Griffin would be a play. He actually has two victories in his last five tournaments if counting the Zurich Classic pairs win alongside Andrew Novak and there are few golfers around right now in such confident form. But these are not normal circumstances. Scheffler is a brilliant closer and the stats show that he’s converted from this position the last eight times he’s led with a lap to go.
This one is done and dusted for me so, instead, I’ll look to the ‘without Scheffler’ markets and several books have priced it up to spark some extra interest. Griffin is around even money to be best of the rest but let’s recall his week and note that he hasn’t broken par for the last two days (72-72) after bursting out of the blocks with a 65. Four bogeys around the turn on Saturday and another to close with hint at a player running out of gas after an exceptional but taxing fortnight.
Nick Taylor, a 20/1 chance with Scheffler, is capable of extraordinary feats in key moments and perhaps he’s already had one with a hole-out eagle from the fairway in Saturday’s 2-over 74. The Canadian is 9/2 without Scheffler and is an option but I’d almost prefer to give him a fun whirl at 20s given that he knows how to win. His Sony Open success in January was his fourth of the current decade and third in three seasons.
But as Griffin and Taylor (three bogeys and a double in round three) shot a combined 2-over on Saturday and may have wobbles in them, I’ll look further down the ‘without Scheffler’ betting and chance my arm with a couple of players who have momentum as well as other good reasons to recommend them.
The first is SEPP STRAKA. The scoring average on Saturday was 73.9 and the Austrian broke it by nearly eight shots in an exceptional 66 that vaulted him 27 places up the leaderboard from tied 31st to tied fourth. At 3-under, he’s five behind Scheffler but, more importantly for the market we’re playing, four adrift of Griffin and two back from Taylor.
Straka is 3rd only to Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in the FedExCup points list after a brilliant season so far. He was 1st for SG: Approach in his Saturday 66, is driving it well and ranks as the third best putter so far this week. Speaking after his round, Straka said: “The golf course has changed over those years that I've been here, but I think the big thing is here you just have to have to stripe it, you have to play well.” Scheffler, who ranks 1st for both SG: Tee To Green and Approach, would agree.
While he’s surely too far back (five shots) to catch Scheffler, Straka has it in him to push hard for the finish line and from a similar position he finished runner-up in the 2023 Open at Hoylake after a strong closing round. With winds of 10-12mph making Sunday a real test, back Straka at 10/1 without Scheffler. Note, it’s a win only market.
My other pick with Scheffler removed from the equation is a rather more speculative 16/1 about PATRICK CANTLAY.
I’m leaning heavily into course history here and Cantlay has a bunch of that after wins in 2019 and 2021 as well as third, fourth and seventh. The second win came after Jon Rahm had to withdraw with Covid after pulling six clear with a round to go so the gods have certainly smiled on Cantlay here.
CLICK HERE to back Cantlay without Scheffler with Sky Bet
Other factors to nudge us towards him? He shot a closing 65 at the Truist Championship two starts ago when fourth while he has the hottest putter of anyone so far this week. Also, his 69 was the t-fourth best score on Saturday, moving him up 11 spots to tied seventh.
e’s currently five back from Griffin and three adrift of Taylor but tough conditions lead to significant leaderboard fluctuations, with low rounds getting extra reward. If Cantlay can find one, it’s not beyond the realms that he emerges as Scheffler’s nearest challenger at the finish.
Posted at 0928 BST on 01/06/25
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