Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland both feature among Ben Coley's specials bets for The PLAYERS Championship, where our man also has four for the first-round lead.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS first-round leader
1pt e.w. Justin Thomas to lead after round one at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Wyndham Clark to lead after round one at 66/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Keith Mitchell to lead after round one at 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Cam Davis to lead after round one at 125/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Scroll down for specials selections
Betting on the first-round leader market is about as risky as it gets, and that's in a sport with more randomness and fortune baked in than just about any other. Keeping stakes small and being alive to the volatility, to the need for a bit of luck, is essential; there is no way to be high on confidence here, just high on hope.
There are though a couple of nice factors to consider ahead of Thursday's first round at Sawgrass.
One is the weather, which is forecast to be sunny and calm having been wet last weekend. What wind there is arrives after lunch, so already an early start begins to feel important. Consider that a wet course could mean greens get cut up by this full field as the day progresses, and early has to be the call.
History s this idea, too. Eight of the 10 players to lead or co-lead since The PLAYERS moved from May to March in 2019 came from the early wave. In fact from 2020 to 2023 there were no late starters involved, which changed when WYNDHAM CLARK matched the target posted by Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele a year ago thanks to a three late birdies.
The final source of encouragement involves two of those names, McIlroy and Schauffele, who are grouped with Scottie Scheffler and tee off in the afternoon. So does Collin Morikawa, so four of the five best players in the field are at an apparent disadvantage on day one, as are two-time Sawgrass leader Tommy Fleetwood and habitual fast starter Keegan Bradley.
Given the rain which fell at the weekend and the slight lengthening of the course, it makes sense to me to side with some longer-hitting early starters. Narrowing them down is tricky and while those big names from last year might suggest we should focus on the best players, in 2023 the lead belonged to unheralded debutant Chad Ramey. That rather sums up first-round leader betting for you.
Clark is the obvious one, in fact he almost feels too obvious because he's led after round one in two of his last three starts and did so here last year. That doesn't seem a great reason to up odds of 66s generally and 75/1 in a place and while I am wary of the slim likelihood that lightning strikes thrice, he's a streaky big-hitter who can light up the greens. Perfect.
KEITH MITCHELL wouldn't necessarily qualify on the putting aspect these days but his best historically has come on greens similar to these and he is at least driving the ball superbly again.
Fifth after an opening 64 at the Cognizant Classic last time, he's carded several low rounds here at Sawgrass including a 65 which was second-best on the Friday back in 2019.
All told he's been third and seventh after round one from just a handful of Sawgrass starts and both these efforts came from a good draw in the morning. He's been handed another, teeing off in the second group out from the 10th tee, and is the outsider I like most.
Tom Hoge is a habitual fast starter who loves Sawgrass. He holds the course record courtesy of a 10-under 62 in round three a couple of years back, shot 66 a year earlier to lead, and was sixth after an opening 67 in 2024.
The trouble is he's gone off the boil since a strong start to the year which saw him do the first-round leader double across the two Hawaii events and I'd rather chance CAM DAVIS at a similar price.
Again, this is a powerful player who can putt the lights out on his day and he was sixth after round one at Bay Hill, having been second at the same stage at Pebble Beach in February, both in high-class fields.
Davis contended here in 2023 so has some Sawgrass form and he generally likes these more classical courses, winning twice on a Donald Ross design in Detroit, often playing well at another in the Wyndham, and starting strongly in his last three appearances at Pete Dye's River Highlands.
He has a big number in him, hence the second-round 80 which saw him fail to make the cut last week, but middle rounds of 64-64 at The Sentry further underline that streaky nature which is no bad thing in this market.
Finally, siding with JUSTIN THOMAS for the first-round lead seems a good way to lean into his strong blend of current and course form without relying on his putter behaving itself for four days.
Thomas last led a tournament in Scotland last summer but since then has five more top-10s after day one and nothing worse than 30th so far this season. He seems really bullish at the moment, as he should be, and while yet to start fast at Sawgrass now has the ideal platform from which to do so.
The 2021 champion has Sawgrass rounds of 64 and 65 to his name and I'd make him the pick of the early starters ahead of Ludvig Aberg and outright pick Hideki Matsuyama, although I wouldn't say no to the latter starting with another 63.
Golf betting tips: The PLAYERS additional bets
2pts treble Corey Conners, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ludvig Aberg in top nationalities markets at 8/1 (General)
1pt Viktor Hovland to win The PLAYERS Championship at 100-110.0 (Betfair Exchange)
Hand on heart very little appealed in the specials markets, partly because I quite liked several players from England and at least two from what's usually grouped in as 'the rest of the world'. That meant I couldn't press-up on Jason Day or take a speculative chance on Laurie Canter, who I do think is capable of getting involved on some level.
Doubling down on Patrick Cantlay by backing him for top American at a standout 25s was tempting, as last week he was shorter than that in the outright market where you have the likes of Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama to beat, among a fair few others. Ultimately though if he's the top American he'll at minimum land the place part of our outright bet and I'll leave it at that.
So while a bit lacking in originality, 8/1 about what looks like a very solid treble is where I've ended up, with COREY CONNERS, CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT and LUDVIG ABERG all confidently fancied.
Conners is the biggest price at 5/2 to be the top Canadian as his competition looks stiffest. Nick Taylor worries me a bit as his iron play is excellent right now, but I'm very happy opposing Taylor Pendrith, whose magic dust with the putter seems to have run out this year.
With the other four either struggling for form or lacking positive Sawgrass experience, or indeed both, Conners might win this with a top 30 if Taylor finds soft conditions against him, and he can aim higher than that having contended last week.
About as solid a ball-striker as you'll find, he's an ideal type for bets like this and whether he is the best Canadian or not, I'd be very strong on him setting the bar high.
Bezuidenhout also arrives in decent touch after 19th at Bay Hill last week and he's finished 13th in the last two renewals of this tournament. Aldrich Potgieter might just find things happening a bit quickly for him and was poor at Bay Hill, while Erik van Rooyen's flattering top-10 last time was the only notable form he's produced in months.
It's a shame the current top South African markets are so slender, just three players making up this one, but evens Bezuidenhout looks a good opportunity to capitalise.
Finally, 4/9 Aberg being the best of three Swedes is generous. He should be much too good for Jesper Svensson, a big-hitting rookie who endured a difficult weekend last time, and Henrik Norlander, whose is 13-over for four rounds here.
It'll depend where you bet but adding Aberg takes us from less than 6/1 to almost 9/1 and I find it very difficult to see him being beaten in this market.
Finally, we have to take three-figure prices on VIKTOR HOVLAND via the exchanges. I've held this preview back to maximise the liquidity and at the time of writing, around £600 is available at 100-110 on Betfair Exchange.
Backing him last week didn't work out but he produced his best approach play numbers in almost two years having reunited with his former coach. That's hugely encouraging for a player with two top-10s in four here.
Awful putting explains his missed cut but those Bay Hill greens are a nightmare when things start to go wrong, as they did when he missed from four feet at the very first hole of the tournament. Otherwise there was a lot to like about his long-game and having almost won a major and a FedEx Cup Playoff event last season, taking a chance at around 100/1 is a must.
This could of course open up trading opportunities should he start well and while I can't be confident that he will, more of the same iron play from last week would make this kind of price look extremely generous. I'll gladly speculate with a win-only bet and recommend anyone following considers taking their stake back if he gets to about a quarter of the price at some point.
Such decisions are for the individual and my record will be settled as 2pts loss if he doesn't win, which is overwhelmingly likely, but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility than Hovland takes a big step forward to contend.
Posted at 1415 GMT on 11/03/25
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