World number one Jannik Sinner faces defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in Sunday’s French Open final. Andy Schooler previews the titanic tussle.
Tennis betting tips: French Open men's final
1.5pts Jannik Sinner to beat Carlos Alcaraz at evens (BoyleSports)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Sinner v Alcaraz at 4/1 (bet365)
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz (1400 BST)
For me, this is a classic case of what you place most weight as a punter.
Sinner has been sensational so far at Roland Garros, his form all the more remarkable given this is just his second tournament back following a three-month drugs ban.
The Italian is yet to lose a set in Paris and he dismantled Novak Djokovic in what was a high-level semi-final on Friday.
He has the chance here to Rafael Nadal, Bjorn Borg and Ilie Nastase as the only players to win the French Open without dropping a set.
Sinner, already the Australian Open champion this year, is now 18-1 for the season.
But the one to have beaten him was a certain Mr Alcaraz, who triumphed 7-6 6-1 when they met in the final of the Rome Masters last month, albeit after saving two set points in the opener.
That took their overall head-to-head to 8-5 in the Spaniard’s favour – I’m including last year’s 6 Kings Slam final in that count for while it was technically an exhibition event, it was certainly a fully competitive match given the record prize money on offer in Riyadh.
Sinner won that day but it is his only win in the last five meetings and he openly addressed stat after his semi-final victory, saying: “Lately my head-to-head doesn’t look great against Carlos, so let’s see what I can do.”
As for Alcaraz, he in turn seems to take confidence from his record in this match-up.
This is what he had to say about playing Sinner after beating him in Rome: “I know how I have to play against him.
“At the beginning I knew what I have to do, and I maintained that kind of strategy during the whole match.
“If I don't play at my best, 10 out of 10, it's going to be impossible to beat him. That's why I'm more focused when I'm playing against him, or I feel a little bit different when I'm going to face him than other players.”
It’s not hard to be convinced that the head-to-head will hold sway here and that what the bookies have as basically a 50-50 match will again go Alcaraz’s way.
But I return to Sinner’s form – his has been clearly better at this tournament, in my opinion.
CLICK HERE to back Sinner with Sky Bet
Alcaraz has lost a set in four of the six rounds so far and was in something of a hole against our 25/1 each-way outright pick Lorenzo Musetti on Friday before edging a second-set tie-break and eventually easing through with the Italian retiring in the fourth set. He’ll need that extra focus in this match, I’d suggest.
And it’s not as if Alcaraz has dominated the previous meetings.
Nine of the 13 have been decided in a final set, with their meeting on Court Philippe Chatrier 12 months ago going to a decider.
In short, I’m not sure it will take much for a narrow Alcaraz win to turn into a narrow Sinner victory.
The Italian has been striking the ball great off both wings and, with his accuracy, has the ability to pull opponents around the court.
Alcaraz’s defence is among the best – he’s able to get around the court so quickly – but Sinner will put pressure on it like no other. Expect Sinner to be going deep into the corners and while Alcaraz is sure to flash some tremendous winners at times, if he’s forced into errors from deep positions, Sinner will be more than happy.
The drop shot will be a big one for Alcaraz, who plays it so well, but overuse can be a problem and Sinner is no slouch around the court himself.
I’d give the edge on serve to Sinner, who again has been outstanding in of accuracy and hitting his spots in Paris. That’s resulted in him holding in 96% of his service games. He’s broken in 38% of return games too. Alcaraz’s equivalent figures are 89-36.
There’s not much to separate the pair but I just give the advantage to Sinner – he’s been so impressive so far and I can see him being able to turn the tables on an opponent who has proved tricky in the past.
For those after a bigger price, 39/20 about this going the distance, as so many of their previous matches have done, has some appeal.
And in the sub-markets, backing a first-set tie-break could provide some value.
Tight starts have often occurred when these two have faced off – seven of the 11 tour-level meetings have seen an opening-set breaker, as well as that aforementioned 6 Kings contest.
I know it’s clay and that increases the chance of service breaks but both men will have laser focus on holding early on and both have been serving very well – Sinner’s 96% hold rate is superb but Alcaraz’s figure of 89% is very good too.
You can get 4/1 about a first-set tie-break and that just looks too big.
Posted at 1505 BST on 07/06/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.