Rory McIlroy is favourite as he seeks a Canadian Open hat-trick, but Ben Coley has three of his potential Ryder Cup teammates in mind.
Golf betting tips: RBC Canadian Open
4pts win Ludvig Aberg at 14/1 (General - 17.0 Betfair Exchange)
3pts e.w. Sam Burns at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Thomas Detry at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 66/1 (bet365, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Erik van Rooyen at 80/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
In an age where it seems more and more people are uniting behind the idea that national opens should form a key part of a global golf schedule, there was some irony to last week's criticism of Rory McIlroy, who chose to play here in Canada instead of a more lucrative Signature Event at Muirfield Village.
On paper, Memorial Tournament host Jack Nicklaus was among those offended, but watching his interview it's hard to escape the view that what happened instead was people became offended on his behalf. Nicklaus seemed to empathise with McIlroy's difficult scheduling choices and only really criticised him for failing to speak with the media at the PGA Championship. On that, he had a fair point.
Anyway, McIlroy will this year play the Canadian, US, Scottish, Irish and Australian Opens, plus the Open Championship of course, and these are all tournaments he's won before. They matter to him and the Canadian Open, which he won with final rounds of 61 and 62 in 2019 and 2022, seems a good place to reset following a disappointing performance at Quail Hollow.
He should find that another new venue for one of the oldest tournaments in golf is ideal. TPC Toronto, as it is now called, is a long par 70 and while McIlroy would love another couple of par-fives, the reality is that there are five par-fours which could qualify, playing as they do in excess of 500 yards. With wide fairways, soft conditions and manageable rough, strong, long drivers like him look set to dominate.
It's a sign of the times, of how well-informed players are when it comes to scheduling, that so many shorter hitters have stayed away. Outside of the home contingent and defending champion Robert MacIntyre (not short, but not super-long, either), only workhorses Sungjae Im and Alex Noren really qualify of the better players, those who have the freedom to choose rather than feeling compelled to pursue FedEx Cup points.
One example is Taylor Pendrith and he's played upwards of 50 rounds here. That plus his obvious compatibility, the fact that he is in-form and led the field in strokes-gained approach last week, all adds up to a strong case, and I do feel that Nick Taylor's 2023 win will help his compatriots. The sticking point is that Pendrith can be shaky under the gun at the best of times and you do have to wonder if he's up to following Taylor's lead.
By contrast there are no such concerns over SAM BURNS, even if it has been a while, and he's fancied to prove one of the key threats to a fairly-priced favourite in McIlroy.
Just as he did last year, Burns has emerged from a spring slump to produce a series of strong results lately. Since the Masters he's played five times for four top-20s and a worst of 30th, and as well as finishing a good 12th last week, he was fifth at a wide, long Craig Ranch in the CJ Cup.
That looks a potentially good form line to follow and while there's a nagging concern that he's relied so much on his putter throughout this spell, the Memorial was the first time he'd gained strokes through the bag since last summer's 3M Open. Crucially, his approach play was better and while he needs more again, it was a big step in the right direction.
Burns had his coach with him in Ohio, perhaps helping to explain the improvement in his long-game, and there could be more to come here in Canada, at a course where he'll be invited to pound driver upon driver. It looks to me like it should really suit and he does have a good record in the event elsewhere, with fourth on debut and 10th last year coming from just three appearances.
And while few players in this field are without incentive, Burns definitely has work to do in order to make the Ryder Cup team. He climbed to 24th with last week's display, one spot ahead of Jordan Spieth, and only one player ahead of him is in the field this week. It's a big opportunity in a tournament he likes and it comes at just the right time.
I'll it that I've gone back and forth on LUDVIG ABERG, but the more I look the more comfortable I feel in siding with the second-favourite.
It's been a strange year for the Swede, who has won the biggest title of his career at a big, championship golf course and also contended right to the death in the Masters, but has three missed cuts and three more finishes of worse than 40th in just a dozen starts.
But most of the bad stuff has been because of his approach play and that's where there are two sources of encouragement to be found. One is that he's an excellent mid-to-long iron player, which should be vital here. Two is that he striped it during the final round of the Memorial, when first in strokes-gained tee-to-green.
One round to totally change the complexion of the week can be viewed in one of two ways, but given that this course should be so suitable, and that his price has held up quite nicely at double-figures in a field which tails off quite significantly after the top dozen in the market, I'm inclined to spin his top-20 finish in Ohio positively.
Ludvig Aberg gets his biggest win yet.
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) February 16, 2025
🏆 🏆 pic.twitter.com/SZXL7VzZhj
Aberg's imperious driving is such a big weapon, a key advantage over the likes of Corey Conners, Shane Lowry, MacIntyre and Im towards the head of this market, and then we're into players like Harry Hall and Keith Mitchell. Again, the field in Canada is not deep, and it's a very good opportunity for him to build on his best golf since Augusta.
One other potential positive is that so many players in this field took part in US Open qualifying on Monday. It's not totally unheard of for someone to go from that to winning just days later (Harrison Frazar, anyone?), but the challenge is significant this time given that we're at a new course in Canada and that the top of the betting features two genuinely world-class operators.
The biggest storyline was Max Homa's closing three-putt to fall into a play-off and miss out as Cameron Young advanced instead. Both have been in the doldrums, hence needing to qualify in the first place, but there are some positives for each of them if you aren't so worried about the physical and mental test they went through on Monday.
For Young, the course is key. He drove the ball much better last week and with his putter behaving, buoyed (not that you'd know it to look at him) by having snuck through that qualifier, there could be more to come. Homa meanwhile was talking bullishly at the start of the Memorial and having also shot 64 in round two of the PGA, things have been improving since he ended a run of missed cuts with 12th in the Masters.
Homa was especially tempting but I'm going to take my chances with the winner of that qualifier, ERIK VAN ROOYEN.
His dominant display in Ohio, where he was eight ahead of Young and six ahead of Bud Cauley in second, can clearly but viewed as a positive – but the case here isn't reliant on that.
Fundamentally, van Rooyen seems a good course fit. He's above-average in length and, as we saw when he won at a long, wide course in Mexico, he's a good mid-to-long iron player. That's always been a strength of his and we see it in this season's stats: fifth, just behind Aberg in proximity from outside 200 yards; top-30 from 175-200.
Those qualities definitely played a big part in his runner-up finish to Scottie Scheffler at Craig Ranch, one of the most power-heavy leaderboards of the season and again, a course where driver was almost mandatory and approach shot distances were well above the week-to-week average.
Fifth at a long, soft Caves Valley, sixth in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and seventh behind Tony Finau at Liberty National all offer further encouragement along with his record in this event. Van Rooyen shot an opening 64 on his debut, eventually finishing 20th, and was up there over the first two rounds in last year's renewal, too.
He said after qualifying for the Truist Championship that he likes playing further north, no doubt in part due to his college education in Minnesota, and since that solid performance in top-class company he's done plenty right, starting well in the PGA and carding rounds of 64 and 65 at Colonial.
Monday confirmed that he remains in good nick and with three top-15 driving displays in his last four, a quality ball-striking performance when last playing at a comparable course and improvements with the putter, there's a lot to like. Sky Bet are currently quoting 100/1 for six places but there's plenty of 70-90/1 around too.
In general though I wanted to steer clear of those who played on Monday. Chris Gotterup, Kurt Kitayama and Ricky Castillo would all otherwise have been of interest and the former did make up for last year's mishap by making it through close to his New Jersey base, but going again here is a big ask and it took big value with EVR for me to overlook it.
Perhaps then this is an ideal chance for THOMAS DETRY to return to the form which saw him win the Phoenix Open in runaway fashion.
Detry has undeniably been quiet since an excellent start to 2025 which had already seen him finish fifth in Hawaii and 15th at Torrey Pines before that first top-level victory, but context is required. His last five individual starts dating back to the Masters have all been majors or Signature Events, as were three of the five before it.
Viewed through that prism, 32nd in the Heritage, 30th in the Truist and 39th last week at the Memorial all represent solid if unspectacular form and I like the fact that his driver clicked over the final 36 holes at Muirfield Village, where he scored abysmally on the par-fives but was otherwise pretty solid and ranked 13th in birdies.
Long off the tee, Detry ought to relish this test now that he's dialled in the driver again and as an elite putter, much like Burns the question mark relates to his approach play. There was enough in the way he played early on at the Truist to give him the benefit of the doubt on that score.
Generally at his best on longer, wide course, such as Kapalua, Corales Puntacana and Memorial Park, Illinois-educated Detry can go well on what's his debut in Canada.
While Detry has to improve this summer to earn a Ryder Cup debut, RASMUS HOJGAARD is well-placed if he can build on a solid run of form as he beds in on the PGA Tour.
At 75th in the FedEx Cup standings it's been a decent season so far for the Dane, who ended 2024 as the best player on the DP World Tour bar those with PGA Tour hip and was rewarded accordingly.
He made an excellent start with 22nd at Pebble Beach and 12th in Phoenix, where he was second behind Detry heading into the final round, and two of three missed cuts between that and the Masters came in high-class company at Torrey Pines and Sawgrass.
Since April though he's improved again and while unable to build on a fine start to the PGA Championship, that was the fifth event in six where he'd found himself inside the top 10 at some stage, having been there at halfway in the Masters and again in the Byron Nelson.
As mentioned, the Nelson at Craig Ranch might be the best recent comparison to this and he was still right in the mix until a poor final round, which he followed with 23rd place in a Signature Event before that opening 68 at Quail Hollow, so for a couple of months now Hojgaard has been threatening to put four rounds together.
This drop back down to a grade comparable with that of the Nelson, and the move to a course which will allow him to unleash off the tee, makes for a really good opportunity and while again I'd like to have seen more from his approach play lately, the rest of his game looks in excellent shape.
His brother Nicolai would also have been of some interest but for his US Open qualifier running into Tuesday down in Florida, which may result in a withdrawal. For now then, Rasmus gets the vote at a course which should be ideal for players like him.
Posted at 1200 BST on 03/07/25
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