Ben Coley is going in again on Thursday's three-ball treble, while he's also keen on two superstars building on solid starts including the world number one.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational round two
2pts Scheffler and Aberg to win their three-balls at 4/1 (General)
2pts Stevens and Lee to win their three-balls at 9/2 (General)
1pt Stevens, Lee and Knapp to win their three-balls at 16/1 (General)
0.5pt all five to win their three-balls at 87/1 (BoyleSports)
Thursday's first round at the Genesis Invitational delivered plenty of what was promised and some of what was feared, as Denny McCarthy had a Denny McCarthy putting day to post the first-round lead.
Having opposed him in a three-ball double and treble, the other legs of which won (11/8) and dead-heated (11/5), McCarthy's birdie-eagle finish alongside a double-bogey from Sam Stevens at the 17th was very costly on a day which saw all outright selections struggle to varying degrees.
We were on McCarthy last time at Pebble Beach but he was frankly nowhere near the shortlist here and I remain of the view that players like him are likely to be swallowed up by a long, demanding Torrey Pines, perhaps more so with a slightly better weather forecast today. That combined with a soft course underfoot should really help the bigger hitters.
Patrick Rodgers, Davis Thompson, Wyndham Clark, Nick Dunlap, Sam Burns, Jake Knapp and Min Woo Lee are all T7 or better, each of them a powerhouse, and it's these players who stand the best chance of overcoming Scottie Scheffler following his ominous round of 72 to lie two shots off McCarthy's lead.
As for those day one bets, I want to give them another try. SAM STEVENS has scope to improve massively off the tee, typically his strongest area but in the end the reason he didn't win his three-ball, and he has an excellent South Course record which looks better still after an above-average 73, even if it wasn't good enough for us.
JAKE KNAPP also underlined his fondness for the course with a one-under 71, where he was strong through the bag and beat favourite Daniel Berger by four. Andrew Novak had to rank third in putting to tie with Knapp, so we bumped into two of the best three putting displays in the field unfortunately.
And then there's MIN WOO LEE, who played to profile with a round of 71 which leaves him tied seventh and for my money the most interesting outright option heading into the second round. We'll stick to a winnable three-ball as having been seven shots better than Eric Cole and three too good for Mackenzie Hughes, I'm surprised he's odds-against.
Prices are unaltered, with 9/2 the double on the two stronger fancies and 16/1 available if we include Knapp for a treble. If anything, I felt Thursday's play reinforced the logic for all three selections. We just need McCarthy and Novak to slow down a bit on the greens and while not guaranteed, the odds on offer represent excellent value.
The other two I like are SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER and LUDVIG ABERG, who feature in two of the marquee three-balls.
Both won on day one and in general I'm disinclined towards expecting things to repeat themselves but in Scheffler's case, we should expect another round well below the field average because that's simply what he does. Given that Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama both had to putt well to stay close to him, and that neither can be relied upon to do so again, he should be odds-on.
I say close, Scheffler was four shots better than Matsuyama and three better than Morikawa, despite a quiet finish, so there's every reason to expect a repeat win for the world number one.
Aberg meanwhile confirmed his wellbeing with a decent 74 which saw him excel off the tee. He was too good for Phoenix contenders Thomas Detry and Jordan Spieth and while Detry does like it here, playing well after such a long-awaited win was probably always a big ask. Spieth's iron play took a big step backwards and Aberg can drive them both into submission.
Posted at 0925 GMT on 14/02/25
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