Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Hainan Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Hainan Classic

4pts win Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 14/1 (General)

2pts e.w. Brandon Stone at 30/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Marco Penge at 45/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Niklas Lemke at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Ivan Cantero at 90/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Joel Moscatel at 250/1 (Sky Bet, SpreadEx 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The words ‘Mission’ and ‘Hills’ might be useful in describing how much of a challenge it is to isolate the right course form for this week’s DP World Tour event, the Hainan Classic.

Two such properties exist in China, one in Shenzhen and the other here in Hainan, and both have various layouts. The real confusion begins when you realise the following two things are true: the only men’s form of note here at the Blackstone Course comes from the 2011 World Cup, yet the Mission Hills World Cup Course is about 400 miles away.

That World Cup was won by Team USA, Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland, and it might just tell us all we need to know despite having taken place almost 14 years ago. Kuchar went as far as saying that he selected Woodland as his partner because the course would fit. Woodland agreed, and almost every player who spoke about Blackstone referred to its length.

Wide fairways which are protected by lava rock rather than rough mean players will hit plenty of drivers around this monster of a par 72, which is listed as playing to 7,711 yards. Perhaps it’ll get firm, as last week’s venue did as the week progressed, as we’re not quite into the heart of rainy season in China, but courses in the region are more often than not receptive.

There are six par-fours from 450-520 yards and two of the four par-fives stretch well past 600, so it’s hard to escape the view that big-hitting will win in the end. Sometimes, wide fairways negate the advantage power hitters enjoy at courses as long as this one and that’s certainly possible, but I wouldn’t call it likely.

I thought last week’s China Open confirmed that these events are generally weak, even if Ashun Wu was something of a surprise champion. Still, he has pedigree and so did just about every contender, the locals by and large failing to compete with so few of them capable of doing so, yet still taking up a big chunk of the field.

As such, there’s a strong case for backing both Hao-tong Li and RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN to be honest but I’ll plump for the latter, who is the best player in the field and deserves to be clear favourite.

• CLICK HERE to back Neergaard-Petersen with Sky Bet

The 2024 Challenge Tour star has four top-10s in seven since earning full DP World Tour status, plus another from a successful jaunt to the PGA Tour where he again came agonisingly close to winning, and DataGolf have him on the fringes of their top 50.

That makes this special young talent clear best in this field and a genuine Ryder Cup contender if he can continue improving, and certainly the quality of his tee-to-green game so far this season suggests we’re looking at a very special talent.

Last week’s staying-on 10th on his first start in a month was a lovely reintroduction to the DP World Tour on just his second trip to China, though notably the first saw him play here in Hainan at the back-end of 2023, months after turning professional and on a course less suitable than this one.

Neergaard-Petersen isn’t in the super-long category like so many of his Danish counterparts but he’s well above-average and I think he’ll enjoy this test far more than Enhance Anting, a quirky, rolling track where no doubt Wu’s dynamite short-game proved decisive.

Our man finished with a bogey six at the par-five 18th but still produced a final round better than all bar Wu and as this might be the most winnable event he plays in for the rest of the year, now looks the time to side with him.

My view on Li is that he’s the second most likely winner but that there's not much juice in 12-14/1. He’s won a small, lucrative event at this course a long time ago but there were only eight professionals to beat, which he did with a pair of 69s, and I just think he’s a fraction too short despite his obvious credentials.

Regular readers will know the regard in which I hold the promising Wenyi Ding but we were on at 40/1 two starts back and he’s as short as 12/1 now, whereas Neergaard-Petersen’s price has shortened by smaller increments for largely better golf as we drop down to this effectively lower grade.

With Eugenio Chacarra potentially carrying a thumb injury, Joost Luiten lacking the required pop and Matthew Jordan failing to build on a promising start last week there’s a serious lack of depth here, and it’s the next few in the market who made more appeal.

Sam Bairstow is certainly close and Julien Guerrier’s record in China is exceptional, but the X-factor of the classy BRANDON STONE is just preferred.

• CLICK HERE to back Stone with Sky Bet

Stone is a Rolex Series winner let’s not forget and while I’d take his current tee-to-green numbers with a pinch of salt (data won’t be fully reliable until shot tracking returns in Europe), he does appear to be striking the ball to a very high standard.

Long off the tee and certainly suited to a big, exposed course such as this one, Stone’s form figures of late read 16-30-20-6-36, a run sparked by a return to his native South Africa.

Truth be told he only really suffered a post-Christmas dip as he signed off last year with six top-25s in succession, including ninth on a big course in Korea, but it was 18th in Japan followed by seventh in China which really kicked off his season in the spring.

His performance in the China Open was remarkable as he shot 74-64-64 in that 54-hole event, climbing 115 places on the leaderboard, and Stone is a past runner-up in China.

He looked to be loving life on the DP World Tour again when contending in India and this just might be the most suitable course he’s played all season, which makes it a cracking opportunity if his short-game holds up under pressure.

Speaking of short-games, MARCO PENGE can usually rely on his putter yet had to make do without it when 26th last week.

• CLICK HERE to back Penge with Sky Bet

The huge-hitting Englishman ranked eighth in strokes-gained off-the-tee and hit solid approach shots too only to suffer his worst putting week since September last year, which I hope means we can safely upgrade his performance.

Granted better luck on the greens (and this strokes-gained data is ed by old-fashioned numbers which have him first in ball-striking but 60th in putting, making it look reliable), not to mention a course upon which he can open his shoulders, Penge could return to the form he showed in March when third in the SA Open.

He was 17th in China last year at a time when he’d missed seven of 10 cuts coming in, and before that his only visit to the country had seen him finish a good 23rd here in Hainan at Sanya Luhuitou, where powerhouses have always thrived.

That could provide a good form guide and Penge, whose two Challenge Tour wins came on exposed courses, may be ready to win his first DP World Tour title if he can marry last week’s improved iron play with his usual putting.

I’ve scoured Sanya Luhuitou form in the hope that it does offer some clues and one name you’ll see more than once is that of Grant Forrest, a two-time runner-up there who hits the ball forever and who has shown more promise lately than his form figures imply.

He’s respected at three-figure prices but I love the way NIKLAS LEMKE is playing at the moment and the Swede is preferred.

• CLICK HERE to back Lemke with Sky Bet

Lemke is another long driver and something of an underachiever if truth be told, albeit he’s had his share of injuries and has still enjoyed a good career since graduating Arizona State with an exceptional record at that division one college.

It’s probably asking a lot for him to now get the win his perseverance may well deserve, given that he turns 41 on Wednesday, but he does have the right profile and in two starts at a course I think could help us, he’s been fourth and 17th.

That 17th came in October when he was in fact the halfway leader and he returns having started the year in encouraging fashion, finishing 10th in Qatar, 13th in Kenya, 37th in Joburg and 22nd last week.

Playing on a Q-School category, opportunities have been limited but he’s clearly been ready to go when presented with one and, through an ittedly small sample of 20 rounds, he’s fifth in this field in strokes-gained total at +1.24 per round.

Fourth in scoring average as well, the veteran might just be in the form of his life and with those performances here in Hainan in mind plus two more top-10s in China, and the fact that he’s always been a powerful driver, he was first onto my shortlist.

Side with two Spanish powerhouses

Davis Bryant is a Q-School graduate we know far less about but he’s fared OK when playing on the DP World Tour and, down at Challenge Tour level, has started to settle in: sixth in Delhi, 26th in the UAE Challenge, then fourth last week despite a slow start.

Along with Freddy Schott he’s of some interest now presented with this chance, while more sensibly both Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Casey Jarvis made some appeal. Aphibarnrat says he feels a win his close while Jarvis is a big talent with an encouraging record in Asia, including a solid effort last week.

But I want to lean into the idea that extreme distance could be the difference-maker and will therefore add long-hitting Spaniards IVAN CANTERO and JOEL MOSCATEL.

• CLICK HERE to back Cantero with Sky Bet

Cantero is back out to big prices again following a seemingly poor run, but he hit the ball well when mid-pack in Singapore before the break (advised at 80/1 in stronger field), undone there by the putter, and after a clumsy return round shot a promising 69 last Friday.

I don’t think Enhance Anting will have suited him anything like the way this course might and it was his likely suitability to a drivers’ layout at Al Hamra which helped us land the each-way money at three-figure prices back in January.

One week later he was placed again in Bahrain behind Laurie Canter, at a course where the wild but long Dylan Frittelli won a year earlier, and sixth place to keep his card late last year came behind Byeong Hun An, another who hits the ball forever.

Cantero’s bad golf is pretty bad but the ceiling of this former top-10 amateur is high. To get close to it, he’s needed the right golf course – and it’s therefore sensible to chance him on this one, especially as it’ll be a while before he finds another where he can hit driver so often.

Moscatel might be even longer and this two-time Challenge Tour winner was a bit of an eye-catcher last week, having been three-over through nine holes but worked his way up to 10th place with a round to go.

• CLICK HERE to back Moscatel with Sky Bet

A couple of bad mistakes on Sunday saw him fade to 36th and so far he’s failed to put four rounds together at this level, but it strikes me as notable that his best golf so far this year came at Al Hamra, when he did manage to play well for three rounds on his way to 16th.

He has a hint of form in Hainan having been 28th at Sanya Luhuitou in October, at a time when his results were poor, while I do like the fact that it’s one year ago this week that his career really went up a level, fourth in the UAE followed by a breakthrough win in Spain.

Another followed in and Moscatel could just be the sort to pop up at a massive price on a suitable golf course. Hopefully, Blackstone plays as it ought to on paper: as the type of venue where the power Woodland used to help win the World Cup helps separate players come the end of this week.

Posted at 0900 BST on 22/04/25

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