After a week off, golf expert Ben Coley returns with five selections for the KLM Open, including the favourite.
Golf betting tips: KLM Open
3pts e.w. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 20/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Sam Bairstow at 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Johannes Veerman at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Alex Fitzpatrick at 80/1 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Joakim Lagergren at 190/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
When golfers are asked to assess what you need to do well at a course where they've just done well, 'hit fairways' is by far the most common answer. Sometimes it's true but more often it's not, and whatever the demands of The International, which hosts the KLM Open for a third time, hitting fairways has by no means been essential – despite being the thing called out by just about every player interviewed a year ago.
In the end, the wayward Guido Migliozzi won a play-off which featured Joe Dean, who ranked much closer to last than first in fairways hit, and Marcus Kinhult, whose weakest club is his driver. This was a very different leaderboard to that of 2019, when two supreme drivers did dominate, but neither of Sergio Garcia or Nicolai Hojgaard could be said to have done so because of their precision. For them, Hojgaard in particular, it's largely about power.
There have though been plenty of straight hitters across these two renewals. James Morrison played well in both, Mikko Korhonen was in front for quite a while last year, Thomas Aiken and Adrian Otaegui haven't been far away, and this sense of variety can be traced back to the course. The International is short by today's standards but that's partly because of five par-threes and it still features a full suite of four par-fives, meaning there are fewer than usual stock holes: nine par-fours compared to 12 last week.
Exposed and somewhat rugged, this modern, resort-style course has offered good resistance despite its humble yardage and there's no doubt that it's a challenge when the wind blows, as it's forecast to do. The removal of a driveable par-four between those 2019 and 2024 tournaments might to some degree explain the apparent levelling of things from the tee, but more important is the fact that these par-fives are no pushover. Across two renewals, only five players have bettered an average score of 4.50, so they're difficult to bully.
What exactly we're looking for then is difficult to say but our two champions are both above-average in length and supreme with their irons when firing. That might be a good starting point along with the general sense that form in Scotland seems to have stacked up well here in the Netherlands, more so when there's been a breeze, although you can find equally strong clues in places as far away as Kenya, and as close as Belgium and .
The latter is the form guide I like best. Migliozzi beat Rasmus Hojgaard at Le Golf National and they were first and fourth here last year; Dean was 15th on his sole start in Paris, and Kinhult has contended there more than once. What's more, the seniors played The International in 2014 and Philip Golding, whose sole European Tour win came at Le Golf National, was runner-up on a leaderboard which featured plenty more connections.
We probably think of Le Golf National as a naturally harder course but lately its winning scores have been lower than Migliozzi was last year. Crucially, though, they've been similar and they are in other ways, too: there's no one way of doing things off the tee, but coping with wind on an exposed, hazardous layout, hitting quality approach shots and managing your misses, is the way to go about building a platform.
RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN is the man to beat and in a weak field where home hope Joost Luiten is second-favourite, I'm happy siding with this enormous talent who really is emerging as a potential Ryder Cup candidate.
Granted, back-to-back missed cuts coming into this aren't your typical profile for a 16-20/1 chance but the first came narrowly on his major championship debut, where yet again he confirmed that his long-game is already of an extremely high standard. Neergaard-Petersen gained almost five strokes from tee-to-green and had he putted anything but abysmally he'd have cruised through to the weekend.
After that he qualified for the US Open in style, topping a leaderboard which featured any number of PGA Tour stars, some from LIV Golf, the best player on the Korn Ferry Tour and a couple more from this one for good measure, including Eugenio Lopez Chacarra.
The only negative in of recent form then is last week's missed cut in Austria, but that came by a single shot on a fiddly golf course and Friday's second-round 68 offered more than enough encouragement, especially as his weakness, the putter, did at least fire as it had when fourth in Hainan prior to the PGA.
Runner-up finishes in Qatar and Puerto Rico together with top-10s in China and Dubai mark him down as the form pick already and while he also failed to make the weekend here last year, two bad holes at the end of round one were the only issue. Imperious off the tee, he showed more than enough to suggest that this course will suit his game.
Three Challenge Tour wins in scores from 14- to 16-under underline that a decent test is best for a player with arguably the best long-game on the DP World Tour and as a final source of encouragement, he was excellent from tee-to-green when 18th at Le Golf National last year. His first win is surely not far away and the fact that he's coming back to The International, despite the US Open taking place next week, is a clue in itself.
Eichenried in a few weeks will be another big chance but that field is sure to be considerably stronger, so hopefully the youngster can strike now.
Luiten is a definite runner after he too missed the cut narrowly last week, but the course in Salzburg ought to have suited him down to the ground and I'm not sure the forecast wind is hugely in his favour. His short-game remains a big worry and any additional emphasis on getting up and down is a negative, something I also have in mind with the otherwise easy-to-fancy Brandon Stone.
SAM BAIRSTOW has a question to answer in that department too but there's plenty more to like about the left-hander.
We were on in Belgium where he again produced an imperious driving display, but having been 93rd after round one he left himself with too much to do despite again storming home just as he had in Turkey, rounds of 64 and 66 enough to finish seventh and 16th since landing in Europe.
Sixth in China prior to that and a contender in the Middle East and South Africa in the spring, Bairstow has stepped up on an excellent rookie season and as with Neergaard-Petersen, he doesn't need to be here with the US Open next week. Yes, they can hop on a flight from Amsterdam easily enough but with their cards for 2026 already secure, presumably both see the KLM Open as a big opportunity.
For Bairstow this will be his course debut but having been runner-up at Le Golf National I'm convinced it'll suit, particularly as he also has proven, winning form in Scotland (similar scoring, former KLM Open winner in second), and of course reached the final of the Amateur Championship at Lytham.
He's driving it superbly, his irons have been excellent virtually every week for five months, his putter generally fires and the only real concern is what he does when he misses a green. But while with Luiten that's a decade-long issue which seems to get worse under the gun, Bairstow is by no means a lost cause.
What's more, there should be more to come now that he's relocated south in order to practice with his peers. That decision is already paying off and he could well become the 12th first-time DP World Tour winner of the season, in what's just the 20th event outside of majors.
Keita Nakajima is a class act whose long-game is in fine shape but he probably has a question or two to answer playing this style of golf and while that's somewhat true of JOHANNES VEERMAN, the American is a big enough price to take a chance on.
Veerman has a top-10 finish at Le Golf National, where he ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green in October, also has a top-10 in the Scottish Open, and has generally played well in Kenya, so he fits the bill in of correlating course form.
He's done it here, too, finishing 40th on debut despite hitting it well and then 10th last year, when tough conditions found him out on Saturday. Either side of that he shot rounds of 65, evidence of what he can do at The International, and with a Dutch dad he's got extra incentive to impress.
Veerman did that at Bernardus in the 2021 edition, finishing sixth, so the concern must be that he's missed eight cuts in nine since following a strong end to 2024 (won the Nedbank) with a strong start to 2025, where he was close to the lead in Dubai and at Ras Al Khaimah.
However, he missed cuts in India and in China by a single shot prior to finishing 20th in the Hainan Classic, then came back to Europe to miss by two in Turkey and one in Austria, both times paying the ultimate price for the kind of slow starts which have become frustratingly common of late.
Only in Joburg has he been well off the pace and I think there have been plenty of positives hidden just beneath the surface, particularly as this strong driver has really started to hit his irons well over the past month, gaining over a stroke per round over his last four starts. With the putter also firing, he looks much closer to his best than his form figures imply and that's ed by a good effort at US Open qualifying recently.
Veerman is a two-time DP World Tour winner with a definite touch of class and at 50/1 and bigger, I'm happy siding with him here.
Course Fitz promising youngster
I mentioned Thriston Lawrence as a biT of a sleeping giant heading into the Soudal Open, where he placed at 80/1, but half those odds and less in places represents an appropriate reaction. He does have a strong piece of links form courtesy of last year's Open and is a class act, but he lacks the other clues I was looking for, hasn't played here before, and is best left alone now returned to the front portion of the betting.
My preference is for ALEX FITZPATRICK, another who brings Open form to the table having been an excellent 13th at Hoylake two summers ago.
Matt's younger brother made a very slow start to the year as both his putter and his driver misbehaved, but on a light schedule he's improved lately, with four top-25s in six solo starts dating back to the Qatar Masters.
It's been especially heartening to see his driving numbers completely transformed, his last three performances all rock-solid, and with his irons following suit it was only a rare shocker on the greens which saw him depart early in Austria last week.
Alex Fitzpatrick is having some Open debut.
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 22, 2023
A 65 puts him in a great position for tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/GFwJRaBvyK
Prior to that, his dynamite short-game had been on display for a staying on top-20 in Turkey and a similar performance in Belgium, making it three in a row playing his own ball having been 17th in India too (MC in the Zurich Classic), so this is a player who seems to be coming back into form now that the Tour has landed in Europe.
Fitzpatrick was down the field here last year when holing nothing but has form in the Netherlands, has been 13th at Le Golf National and 19th in Kenya, and I can't help but draw encouragement from a couple of good Soudal Open efforts given what Migliozzi and Dean have done there, too.
He's a bet down to 50/1 and should we get the result we'd like, the recommendation above will be settled at the more general 60/1. A couple of firms offer 66s, too, so there should hopefully be something for everyone.
Jacob Skov Olesen won the Amateur Championship at Ballyliffin last summer and continues to impress. His impressive iron play should be a big plus here and while he's only been mid-pack in two starts since an eye-catching 12th in Turkey, such fluctuations are to be expected. He remains a player to keep a very close eye on and very much made the shortlist.
At much bigger odds, I was closer to rolling the dice on his compatriot Lucas Bjerregaard.
Two top-25s in three, including 17th last week, represent a significant upturn from the once-classy Dane, whose only blip during this run came with a poor second round in Belgium. However, his Rinkven record now reads MC-MC-MC, so that wouldn't unduly worry me and he played nicely on Thursday.
Last week's second-round 64 was his lowest of the season, just a fortnight after a closing 66 in Turkey, so there have been plenty of good signs lately from a former Dunhill Links winner who also has links form elsewhere in Scotland and across Ireland, where he was 16th in the Open north of the border at Portrush.
Although not exactly a specialist at Le Golf National he has led after round one there and having driven the ball much better last week, ranking sixth off-the-tee, and hit plenty of greens, it's easy to see why he's attracted some . Unfortunately, that leaves us in a bit of a predicament and I'm inclined to let him go.
JOAKIM LAGERGREN is also popular at the time of writing but he is one I'm even more sweet on, with plenty left in the price.
Seventh here in 2019 and a winner by the coast in Sicily, as well as a play-off loser in Doha, Lagergren has always been comfortable in the wind. This is a player who has been second, third and fourth in the Dunhill Links, don't forget.
Lately he's struggled to re-establish himself on the DP World Tour but having missed the cut by one in Turkey and Belgium he made it last weekend, and having also qualified for the US Open a few weeks ago he's another who keeps hinting at something good.
Behind the scenes with Joakim Lagergren 🥰#IrishChallenge pic.twitter.com/Fh1MdwotWn
— HotelPlanner Tour (@HPlanner_Tour) August 4, 2024
Eighth in Bahrain and 13th in Kenya, we do have some tangible form from the spring and if you need reminding of his ability to find it out of seemingly nowhere, Lagergren followed a quiet run on the Challenge Tour with form figures of 2-1-MC-1 last summer.
Those two wins came on exposed courses in Ireland and Sweden, latterly at Vesterby Links, and having also been ninth at The Dutch (another modern, exposed venue used for this event), I'm absolutely convinced this is a great tournament in which to chance him.
The icing on the cake is the fact that he's started to drive the ball really well, the one department which so often has held him back, and with his irons firing and a reputation as arguably the best putter on the circuit over the past decade, there's plenty to be hopeful about.
Posted at 1800 BST on 02/07/25
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