Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Valero Texas Open

4pts win Ludvig Aberg at 12/1 (General, 14.0 Betfair Exchange)

1.5pts e.w. Maverick McNealy at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Sam Stevens at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Lee Hodges at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 80/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Isaiah Salinda at 100/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Tim Widing at 500/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

At last week’s Houston Open, golf threw up something it seldom does: black and white. Memorial Park is meant to serve the biggest of big-hitters and, thanks to short rough and no shortage of pre-tournament rain, that’s exactly what it did, to the extent that I can seldom recall a more lopsided leaderboard.

As we move across the state to TPC San Antonio, a desert par 72 designed by a former CEO named Greg Norman, it would be disingenuous to suggest things are quite so simple on paper. Equally, it would be wrong to categorise this as anything but a stern test of tee-to-green credentials.

Last year’s renewal somehow went to a play-off thanks to a sensational burst of scoring from Denny McCarthy, but Akshay Bhatia had looked the winner all weekend and ended it ranked first in strokes-gained tee-to-green. All of the top six in this category finished T7 or better overall; McCarthy himself ranked second.

In 2023, the top four in strokes-gained approach filled the first four places in that order. Corey Conners did as he’d done in 2019 and won the title putting better than he usually does, but worse than at least 20 of his rivals who made the cut. In 2021, the strokes-gained tee-to-green ranks of the top four read 3-2-1-4, and once upon a time Stephen Bowditch won this tournament despite putting badly.

San Antonio is just a good test off the tee and with approach shots and the record score at this course, 20-under, would’ve won most renewals by a wide margin despite there being the full complement of par-fives plus a driveable par-four.

It is simply not a coincidence that Conners has won here twice, that JJ Spaun and Kevin Chappell and Charley Hoffman and Brendan Steele and Adam Scott are also on the roll-of-honour and that when the Korn Ferry Tour came here, Davis Riley, Paul Barjon, Taylor Pendrith and Austin Smotherman filled out the first four, with Will Zalatoris tied for fifth.

All of this is why, despite the pre-Masters timing and the fact that such tournaments have thrown up some big surprises in the past, I can’t escape LUDVIG ABERG.

• CLICK HERE to back Aberg with Sky Bet

We’ve been on the wrong side of the Swede this year having got stuck in at Torrey Pines, watched him lose a battle with the flu after a brilliant start, then return to the very same course and win a Signature Event at bigger odds.

Such is life but we were on at the RSM Classic and I think he’ll go very close to taking down a similar opportunity here, in Texas, where he went to college and in fact had an early taste of PGA Tour golf when playing in this event while still an amateur.

Aberg also played a couple of college events at the Oaks Course and it’s certainly one which is made for golfers like him.

Returning last year he ranked first in strokes-gained off-the-tee and hit his irons well only to fade to 14th due to a misfiring short-game, and there do remain some concerns about what he does on those relatively rare occasions he misses a green.

However, if there’s one course from which I don’t mind overlooking an off week it’s TPC Sawgrass, where he drove it superbly but still missed the cut last time, and it’s not much more difficult to upgrade his solid Bay Hill effort given that he’s yet to really fire there.

Florida golf is fickle, certainly those two courses in top-class company, so returning to a tee-to-green test he knows oh so well, Aberg stands out. His price versus the next few in the betting just looks a little off to me – we should really be talking single-figures and he’s backed accordingly.

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Maverick selections

There is precedent for one of the favourites to overcome the potential Masters distraction and win on the eve of it, something Phil Mickelson demonstrated more than once. Conners and Jordan Spieth have won this from near the top of the market and that’s happened via Russell Henley and Hunter Mahan when the Houston Open occupied this slot, too.

But I must say the next handful don’t make much appeal at all, albeit I do believe Patrick Cantlay is close to a big performance. He’ll enjoy San Antonio and is a better golfer than Conners, who is on offer at a shorter price, but hand on heart I’m still very happy to omit him.

My favourite bet of the week in pure value is MAVERICK MCNEALY and I’m amazed he opened as big as 50/1.

• CLICK HERE to back McNealy with Sky Bet

Again, this comes down to how you grade form at places like Sawgrass and Bay Hill and I’m not for a second arguing it is worthless. However, you can quickly come unstuck at both and McNealy always does at the latter, while his one good PLAYERS effort was mostly short-game powered.

Anyway, he went into the Florida Swing chalked up around the 40/1 mark to beat the very best on the circuit because he’d almost done that when second to Aberg at Torrey Pines, and in this markedly weaker field there’s no way he should be a bigger price.

We also have the benefit of last week’s tie for 32nd in Houston, where he ranked 11th in strokes-gained tee-to-green but didn’t putt well. That’s just fine with me when we’re talking about someone who ranked 75th in putting at Pebble Beach, then third and first over the following fortnight.

McNealy is perfectly capable of lighting up any greens and while yet to do so here, that helps mask two promising performances. When in generally modest form in 2022 he was one of the very best ball-strikers in the field, then on his return last year he wasn’t too far below that standard, gaining strokes off the tee and with his approaches again.

Maybe he’ll suffer another poor putting week but I wouldn’t count on it and as far as course suitability goes, he’s long, his irons are much-improved, and he once came very close to winning at Silverado which, while a long way from here, has always thrown up some fascinating ties and not often through top-class golfers.

Seeing names like Bowditch, Steele, Spaun and Kevin Tway makes me pay attention but whatever the merits of this potential similarity, McNealy is a borderline world-class golfer chalked up as something quite a bit below that. I hope he can prove these prices all wrong and to do so, he might just need to hole a few putts.

Keith Mitchell was high on the list but is about half the price he was for the Valspar and that’s hard to accept in his case. Mitchell is certainly playing well and his progressive San Antonio form is easy to fall for, but he’s getting in his own way at the moment and I’d have needed closer to 50s.

Instead, SAM STEVENS is worth including at that price.

• CLICK HERE to back Stevens with Sky Bet

Stevens had gone off the boil following a strong start to the campaign which saw him defy a big draw bias to chase home Harris English in the Farmers, then prove competitive in three strong tournaments after that.

Perhaps again we ought to be generous when it comes to form at some of these tough Florida courses and after g off that part of the season with a low-key effort at the Valspar, it was good to see him improve for a return to his home state of Texas when 18th last week.

On the one hand there is a slight concern that he might’ve been flattered by the outcome given that his ball-striking wasn’t as good as it can be, but on the other he has tended to cluster big performances, and the timing of this one could not have been better.

Stevens was runner-up here in his rookie season, chasing home course specialist Conners, then returned to be 14th last year despite little in the way of current form. In fact, it was his best effort of the season so far and pound-for-pound remained one come the end of it.

And this makes sense: not only is San Antonio a nice fit for powerful player who’d rank among the best drivers in this field, but he’s from Texas and has generally played well when returning, making nine cuts in 10 including last week when he shot 65 on both Friday and Sunday.

Andrew Landry would be the best example of a surprise home winner of this event but Spieth and Jimmy Walker are other more predictable ones (Walker grew up in San Antonio having been born in Oklahoma), while rank outsider Bowditch made his home away from home in Texas.

My one slight issue with Stevens is that he has been busy in pursuit of a Masters spot, missing just one week so far this season. That concern is a real one as freshness can be invaluable; those who are playing their sixth or seventh week running, such as Ben Griffin, have a big task on their hands to remain focused – even with the carrot of a Masters place to pursue.

Since 2000, the pre-Masters event has exclusively been won by players who arrived after no more than four events on the spin, which has been enough to dissuade me from Rico Hoey and Ryan Gerard, the former in particular otherwise of interest.

Stevens though did skip the Cognizant at the start of March so, buoyed by that top-20 finish in Houston, he should have plenty left in the tank for the tournament in which he’s achieved most in his short career to date.

Fatigue won’t be a problem for LEE HODGES, who last week returned from a minor rib injury to finish 11th at Memorial Park.

• CLICK HERE to back Hodges with Sky Bet

There are in fact three ways we can upgrade that performance: firstly that he’d been off for more than a month, secondly that the course was playing even longer than usual, and thirdly that he’d been no factor whatsoever in two previous starts there.

By contrast, San Antonio has been a good fit for him. He was 14th when it held a Korn Ferry Tour event and while MC-6-MC since can be viewed positively or negatively, note that he struck the ball beautifully last year but was at the very beginning of a putting slump.

In fact all three PGA Tour starts here have yielded strong ball-striking performances and having seemingly overcome the putting funk which dogged him throughout last summer, it seems reasonable to believe that shouldn’t be a problem for him this time.

His sixth place here in 2023 was by far his best performance during the first half of the year, following form figures of 14-MC-MC-63 in Florida, and his win later in summer came at a course which if nothing else demands a high standard from tee-to-green – he ranked first.

Hodges has been hinting at a second win from the moment he contended in Utah in October, with six top-20s since then, and on just his seventh start of the year he could definitely enjoy a mental edge on a few of these. Perhaps it’ll be enough to earn a return to Augusta.

Kirk ready to roll

CHRIS KIRK will be there regardless and the Georgia resident might arrive with a spring in his step.

• CLICK HERE to back Kirk with Sky Bet

Kirk, whose winning form has almost exclusively come in the southern and southeastern states, is a broadly similar player to Hodges and has an even better course record – five top-15s from nine starts, always good off the tee.

With his irons generally reliable, Kirk looks a good fit if he can build on his putting display at Sawgrass, where he’d been 16th through 54 holes only to fade on Sunday. It is an ‘if’, because he’d gone through a sustained run of poor putting before The PLAYERS, but if the worm has turned then we’re talking about a very dangerous player in this grade.

Kirk didn’t play here last year but was in the mix all week in 2023, defied a slow start to be sixth two years before that, did something similar when eighth in 2018, and finished eighth a decade ago when again he never left the top 10 throughout.

He’s been playing just fine without threatening this season and when you consider that he ranks 161st in putting, there are reasons to believe that solving one problem could well unlock a massive performance at the sort of course he enjoys.

Kirk turns 40 in a month and I won’t be surprised at all if he’s bagged his seventh PGA Tour title before that day comes.

Eric Cole has two top-15s coming in and has some sneaky course form, as well as a close call at Silverado, but I am a bit concerned about his driver. For that reason he’s omitted along with strong ball-striker Steven Fisk, a rookie to keep an eye on in the coming months.

But my final two were ISAIAH SALINDA and TIM WIDING and with the latter a massive price, I will squeeze both into the staking plan.

• CLICK HERE to back Salinda with Sky Bet

Salinda is an excellent driver of the ball who I think will enjoy this. He’s gained strokes from tee-to-green in five of his last six starts, the exception being Sawgrass, and throughout this spell his driving has been of a very high standard.

With his irons spiking on three occasions we’re left with the putter, which got better with each round in Houston. That’s highly encouraging and having gone close already in Mexico, this is one of the rookies who appears most comfortable.

Salinda is an ex-Walker Cup player long held in high regard and I suspect we’re in the process of finding out that he’s far better suited to the PGA Tour than he was the Korn Ferry, where it’s no coincidence that his win came under tough scoring conditions.

As for Widing, he’s harder to justify but is a long, strong driver who had been solid off the tee until last week, when his irons sparked into life during Friday’s second round. He made two bogeys that day, both the result of short missed putts, and still shot 67.

• CLICK HERE to back Widing with Sky Bet

Maybe that’ll help the Swede to improve again and having gone MC-1-1 at around this time last year, the first of them at a big-hitters’ course in Florida and the second here in Texas, Widing might just have dropped a hint with that improved round two.

I certainly don’t mind speculating at 300/1 and bigger about this resident of San Luis Obispo, and if he wins we can put on some dance music. Hooray for the Mountain Goats, and I'll return next week when we're going to Georgia.

Posted at 2000 GMT on 31/03/25

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