Ben Coley previews the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, a pairs event where two close friends from Sea Island can shine.
Golf betting tips: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
4pts e.w. Poston/Mitchell at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
3pts e.w. Horschel/Hoge at 28/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Riley/Hardy at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Lipsky/Wu at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
One year ago, Rory McIlroy sang Don’t Stop Believing, not a month on from another disappointing trip to Augusta. He sang it, drunkenly, after he and Shane Lowry had won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Now, he makes the most joyful of returns having never stopped believing, having finally done it – having won the Masters.
Lowry says he wasn’t expecting McIlroy to keep up this commitment and wouldn’t have minded if he hadn’t, but it seems the proud new owner of a green jacket wants to get back to some kind of normality. There are just three weeks until the next major and better to return now than in a Signature Event before the PGA. Better still to keep a promise.
The pair may do it again but they’re half the price and while they probably didn’t need to be at their best in winning last year, a lack of practice on McIlroy’s part can’t be a good thing. Maybe, having carried Lowry to victory, his friend will return the favour. Don’t bet on that at 7/2.
I actually like this event as a betting medium, though. We’ve 80 teams and while the play-off losers last year serve as a reminder not to rule any of them out altogether, there are many you’d do well to build a case for. And as a pure spectacle, it makes a welcome change from the week-to-week, particularly the chance to watch alternate shot in rounds two and four.
Market leaders have a pretty good record with five of the seven winning teams reasonably well-fancied and three of them either favourites or close to it. Theoretically that’s because their class counts for so much in foursomes on Friday and Sunday – but Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer outscored their world-class rivals by six in the tougher format.
If you’re happy taking on board the volatility of the event there are as many as 10 teams I’m keen on to varying degrees, but none more so than J.T. POSTON AND KEITH MITCHELL.
Straightforwardly, these two have skills and profiles which would appear to complement each other. Poston is short but straight; Mitchell is powerful. Both are good iron players now that Mitchell has improved, but he misses a lot of putts. Poston can be deadly.
There’s an argument that similar skills work – one best validated by 2023 champions Davis Riley and Nick Hardy – but I won’t be alone in wondering whether these two could dovetail really well in fourballs and strike up an excellent foursomes pairing too.
I also like the fact that the format should help Mitchell be kinder to himself. The former Honda Classic champion has talked himself out of a second win, even itting after one round of the recent Valspar that his final round in last year’s event was still fresh in the memory.
Over his last four starts he’s never been worse than second after round one but never really had any kind of chance to win by round four, evidence of the weight which sits on his shoulders, and playing alongside a friend in this event must surely help to ease that.
He finished strongly for a big share of second in the Dominican Republic on Sunday, too, and he’s played well here with Sungjae Im (sixth) and Brandt Snedeker (fourth), particularly the latter when he very much carried his more experienced partner.
Mid-pack with Joel Dahmen last year, another poor putter, Mitchell should enjoy seeing the putts go in alongside Poston, whose has done OK with Stephan Jaeger (22nd in 2019) and Dominic Bozzelli (32nd in 2017) but has never had a better partner for this.
Poston has been runner-up at River Highlands and has an excellent record at Harbour Town, which are both Pete Dye tracks. So is TPC Louisiana and I think it’s a decent fit for him and Mitchell, particularly given where we are in the US and their respective southern ties.
Poston hasn’t missed a cut since the Sony Open, played as well as could’ve been expected at Augusta before improving for 11th in the Heritage, and can help his fellow Sea Islander get that overdue second win.
It was striking last year that the surprise contenders each had at least one powerful driver, Trainer in the case of the runners-up. Ryan Brehm and Mark Hubbard were in the mix, as were Sam Stevens and Paul Barjon, and with four par-fives plus a just-about-driveable par-four to go at, having that extra 20 yards in the locker must help.
Of the market leaders, Wyndham Clark and Taylor Moore therefore stand out and Clark partnered a similar player in Beau Hossler to place two years ago. Moore has a fine record alongside Matt NeSmith, too, so they were immediately of interest given their potential to overpower Louisiana and make heaps of putts.
However, Moore skipped Houston, the Texas Open and the Corales Puntcana due to a rib injury, so I have to opt for BILLY HORSCHEL AND TOM HOGE instead.
These two don’t have that additional power off the tee but what they lose there they make up for elsewhere.
For starters, Horschel’s course record is excellent. It was here some 12 years ago that he secured his first PGA Tour win, and he came back to capture the revamped Zurich Classic alongside Scott Piercy, then finish fourth and second alongside Sam Burns.
Last year’s missed cut came alongside journeyman Tyson Alexander so Horschel is making a big upgrade here by ing forces with Hoge, who has gone 3-5-14-18 over his last four starts, the first of them at the Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass he so adores.
Also third at River Highlands, Hoge’s form on Dye courses is strong and so is Horschel’s, as he’s been a regular feature at Harbour Town, won here twice, finished 10th at Crooked Stick, 13th at Sawgrass, and just outside the top 20 at both Kiawah Island and Whistling Straits.
Hoge’s past efforts at this course hardly leap off the page but he managed 24th and 10th when paired with out-of-form veteran J.J. Henry, before more recently managing 13th alongside Harris English, so there’s plenty to suggest he can play around here.
Right now he’s among the most solid tee-to-green performers around and with Horschel having shown promise either side of the Masters, where he’s simply never a factor, both are arriving to the event in good shape. They could make a formidable duo if the putts drop, and Hoge’s recent improvement in that area is heartening.
He’s won a pairs event before in the shape of the QBE Shootout and along with Horschel looks to have an outstanding chance this week.
Max Greyserman and Nico Echavarria know each other well and were placed last year. Both have improved since in a broader sense, but their very recent efforts haven’t been quite so strong and while they are the best putting duo in the event, and Greyserman has power, I worry a little about their approach work.
By contrast, Jordan Smith and Laurie Canter are both flushers and I was a bit surprised to see 50/1 about two players ranked inside DataGolf’s top 100. Perhaps there’s something added to the price to for the fact that they lack experience in the US, and indeed PGA Tour hip, but it’s slightly odd to see them bigger than Jesper Svensson and Niklas Norgaard.
Were this a DP World Tour event, at just about any course, Canter and Smith would be shorter than both Svensson and Norgaard in the outright market. Maybe the Scandinavians are simply too short here but I would’ve been chancing the English duo, who are close friends, but for Smith’s journey from another near-miss in China on Sunday.
Aaron Rai and Sahith Theegala are a potentially dream pairing but Theegala was struggling with an injury on Sunday and I wonder whether DAVID LIPSKY AND DYLAN WU might upstage them.
Lipsky has been Rai’s partner here in all three previous appearances, the pair close from their DP World Tour days, and they produced an excellent run of 4-13-23. Even last year, they led at halfway, while in 2023 they excelled in foursomes, so it was a successful link-up.
Presumably, Rai has ditched Lipsky now the prospect of an Indian heritage pairing with the classy Theegala is on offer and who can blame him, but it may just spark Lipsky into improving upon last week’s mildly encouraging 31st in the Corales Puntacana.
New partner Dylan Wu also has a positive record in the event, finishing 10-MC-28 alongside Justin Lower, and he’s been ticking over nicely including when 12th in the Dominican Republic.
There, brother and caddie Jeremy returned to work having needed time away to deal with serious illness, but it seems he’s heading in the right direction and that can only have helped Dylan to produce a solid week at the Corales.
With a solid record here and two good performances at Sawgrass to his name, Wu looks a decent substitute and while Lipsky’s overall form is a worry which explains the price, that’s been true ahead of all three previous appearances here.
Finally, the strength of DAVIS RILEY’s form means he and fellow 2023 champion NICK HARDY have to be worth chancing.
Hardy’s form is the problem and he’s really struggled with his short-game throughout the season. The positive is that his long-game remains strong and having made the cut last week, following a run of frustration which wasn’t without promise, he might just find this format takes the pressure off his chipping and putting.
The pair had form with other partners before combining to win two years ago and they put in a solid defence to finish 28th, at a time when neither of them was exactly firing on all cylinders.
Davis Riley 🤝 Nick Hardy
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 27, 2024
The longtime friends celebrated on the 18th green together after Davis Riley won the @CSChallengeFW. pic.twitter.com/9Mz2RFBjeL
One year on and Riley, an individual winner since, certainly has recaptured his best with six cuts made in six starts since returning to familiar conditions, a run which includes two chances to win, a fine recovery at Sawgrass, and a very good Masters debut.
His irons are red-hot once more and with small improvements off the tee and over short putts, he looks close to winning again. Perhaps it will happen here and, at bigger odds than when selected 12 months ago, I love the price.
Given the format, I do believe many readers will prefer not to side with my two strongest selections so here’s the rest of my shortlist and some notes should they help solidify one of your own fancies.
DOUG GHIM AND CHAN KIM
These two were tied 28th last year and return a slightly bigger price, despite Kim’s T7 at the Corales to extend a nice run of form. Ghim, who has solid form across a number of Dye tracks, was 18th in Texas last time and continues to strike the ball well. He’s been 11th in this with Justin Suh, 32nd with Matthias Schwab, and should enjoy having a powerful partner to supplement his fairways-and-greens game.
NATE LASHLEY AND HAYDEN SPRINGER
Nate Lashley has been 15th in this alongside short, limited veteran Rob Oppenheim, when fifth at halfway, and last year made the cut with a struggling Rafael Campos. He’s made his last four cuts thanks to some putting improvements, so it’s a good time to forces with powerful Hayden Springer, who was paired with a fellow rookie when missing the cut on debut – rookies have a very poor record in this. It would be some story if they went close as both have overcome personal tragedy to make it to the PGA Tour.
PATRICK FISHBURN AND ZAC BLAIR
These two are longtime friends from Utah and they make a fascinating little-and-large pairing, with Fishburn a long hitter and Blair among the shortest around. They had very little positive form coming in last year yet finished fourth, so have to be of some interest given that Fishburn was fifth last time out, with Blair 18th on a rare start last week. Blair has been runner-up at River Highlands, too.
TREY MULLINAX AND ROBBY SHELTON
These two underachievers from Alabama make a nice duo, one powerful, one an excellent iron player, both on their day able to putt well. Mullinax has experience contending for this alongside Scott Stallings in 2019 and I wouldn’t hold Shelton’s missed cut a year ago against him, as he was with Wilson Furr. His Korn Ferry Tour form is solid and includes a top-10 finish last week, and he loves playing in the Deep South. Mullinax meanwhile contended recently in Houston, though that really is a dream set-up for him.
JACOB BRIDGEMAN AND CHANDLER PHILLIPS
Two solid players, one from South Carolina the other from Texas, and they did just fine for 19th on debut. Bridgeman is a deadly putter who has contended recently and Phillips had improved four starts running until a missed cut last week. With Bridgeman struggling at Harbour Town they don’t look a gift at the price but wouldn’t be shock winners.
CHARLEY HOFFMAN AND NICK WATNEY
Don’t laugh. These two veterans have played all seven editions together and have five top-20s, including each of the last two years. That’s a serious record and there have been some reasonable signs from Watney on the Korn Ferry Tour, while Hoffman played nicely in the Dominican Republic last week. Winning (250/1) seems most unlikely but at 9/2 for a sixth top-20 finish they may well have their backers.
Posted at 1300 BST on 22/04/25
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