Our form expert struck with 7/1 winner Formal at Epsom on Friday and he has three bets for Betfred Derby day at Epsom on Saturday.
The Verdict: Saturday June 7
1pt win Bermuda Longtail in 1.00 Epsom at 13/2 (William Hill, 888sport)
1pt e.w Fair Wind in 2.45 Epsom at 10/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5 General)
0.5pts e.w Tuscan Hills in 3.30 Epsom at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Run for the Hills in the Derby
It’s a fascinating renewal of the Betfred Derby at Epsom on Saturday with the biggest field in 22 years combined with an unsettled weather forecast making it a tricky race to weigh up.
Forecast rain through the night and then on race day itself has raised the prospect of more significant cut in the ground than looked likely for the big event and it’s not really a surprise the market is struggling to find a clear favourite.
It wouldn’t surprise me if The Lion In Winter left his Dante form way behind under Colin Keane and he’s a player, but his York conqueror Pride Of Arras arguably deserves to be favourite after such an impressive win second time up.
I prefer those two to Delacroix and Ruling Court, as there's a bigger question mark over both for me regarding the trip, while the likes of Lambourn and Stanhope Gardens are interesting enough - but they’ve now both inched by the price threshold I’d be prepared to accept.
Indeed, given we are looking at a big-field Derby, in what looks like being wet weather, I think a small each-way bet at a huge price is the way to go and Raphael Freire’s TUSCAN HILLS appeals getting four places at 50/1.
Amo Racing have hit the frame with big-priced horses Mojo Star (50/1) and King Of Steel (66/1) in recent years, both horses running well in second, and they have another interesting outsider here, particularly with the rain in mind.
The son of Night Of Thunder glided through soft ground on his way to an emphatic Listed success at Pontefract to take his juvenile record to two from two last October, a race Westover was beaten in before he went on to run so well in the Derby.
Tuscan Hills returned in the aforementioned Dante Stakes behind Pride Of Arras at York and he ran well considering it was his first start in seven months, the slow gallop against him as he weakened late on to finish a four-length seventh.
Of course, he’s got work to do to reverse that form, but I liked the move he made to go from seventh to disputing the lead from three furlongs out and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he made a significant step forward from that now he tackles easier ground.
There are question marks over whether he will stay the trip, but his granddam Eswarah won the Oaks and his dam’s by Sea The Stars, so there’s hope there that he’ll be just fine over a mile and a half at Epsom.
The Verdict: Back TUSCAN HILLS in the 3.30 Epsom
Fair bet in the Dash
Earlier on the Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap will be fast and furious and I just wonder if this unique race will play to the strengths of the mercurial FAIR WIND.
Owen Burrows chooses his Epsom targets carefully but he’s four from 10 here and Fair Wind is at his best travelling away in strongly-run five-furlong races, as he showed at Goodwood and Ascot last season.
Indeed, he beat the subsequent “Dash” winner Dream Composer at Goodwood and his ability to cope with a downhill sprint track was very much in evidence there, while he won't mind the rain either.
It was no surprise Burrows took him back to Sussex for the Glorious meeting after that and he was sent off 7/2 favourite only for him to refuse to race, which is obviously a concern for backers.
Hopefully it was just a one-off and I think his reappearance run at Chester was an exercise in getting him through the stalls on race day again, which he did, his wide draw meaning he was dropped out and not given a hard time in the rear.
It looks significant Burrows thinks he’s ready to take in a race like this now and for all the risks attached I think he’s worth getting with at double-figure odds considering his ability.
The Verdict: Back FAIR WIND in the 2.45 Epsom
Bermuda beauty for Balding
Andrew Balding won the opener on Oaks day with Formal and he might just repeat the trick on Derby day with another filly in BERMUDA LONGTAIL who goes for the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes.
The daughter of Hello Youmzain is lightly-raced after just four career starts and she caught the eye on turf debut at York last time out when going down narrowly to Kon Tiki in the Listed Sky Bet Fillies’ Stakes.
I’ve a lot of time for Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Knavesmire winner who is unbeaten in three and could be set for bigger things, so I think it was a big effort from Bermuda Longtail to run her down to half-a-length thanks to a strong finishing effort.
This race looks the natural next step for her, slightly up in both class and trip and taking on her elders for the first time.
It looks a good spot for her getting the 12lb weight-for-age allowance, Arabian Queen and Epsom Icon two 3yo fillies who took advantage of the concession in this race, while others like Nazuna and Chic Columbine went close in recent years.
With a strong pace looking likely she could come with another strong late run under Oisin Murphy to land the day’s opening prize.
The Verdict: Back BERMUDA LONGTAIL in the 1.00 Epsom
Preview posted at 1600 BST on 06/06/25
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