Epsom Derby preview

Some things run through families. The men in the Royal Family go bald and three of my cousins all became teachers like their mother and father.

On the other hand none of my relatives are remotely interested in horse racing which shows how human preferences are hard to predict (a niece is an opera singer) whereas all thoroughbred racehorses are bred on very narrow lines from generations of other racehorses and usually want to run.

In a more refined way, racing pedigrees can often indicate a horse's likely pathway, whether it be precocity or the opposite, ground preferences and the likely optimum distance. There may also be temperament issues running through a family or physical weaknesses, poor conformation and lameness.

It is by no means an exact science but, as time goes on, a pattern can emerge through the generations; certain matches ('crosses') work better than others and, for long-term students, the name of a horse's dam can prompt recollections of that filly's racing career.

Unfortunately, when the grand dams begin to ring bells, you’re probably entering your own final furlong. But there hasn't been much study into instances when horses emulate their relatives' preference for certain tracks.

Back in the summer of 2022, in yet another fascinating tipping column in this space, I found a case for a filly called State Occasion who was running at the Goodwood Festival.

Trained by Ralph Beckett, she was very consistent and it looked significant that her dam Forest Crown had been beaten a neck at Goodwood on her only visit and that State Occasion's full brother Forest Of Dean had won at the Festival in 2019.

As predicted, in what was a rare light bulb moment, she was completely at home on the tricky, undulating course and won in good style under Rossa Ryan.

Looking ahead to Saturday's Betfred Derby, run on another very difficult course for many horses, the Dante Stakes winner Pride Of Arras - also trained by Beckett and set to be ridden by Ryan - is bred to thrive at Epsom as his close relation Patient Dream (two wins from four visits) and half brother Sweet Fantasy (a course and distance winner) were well suited.

Could this be significant, particularly on such an unconventional track? And what a coincidence...

As an aside, Golden Waters, the dam of Brighton course specialist Uncle Dick, won twice in her career, both at Brighton. She never won anywhere else.

And there may be many other examples.

The fact that Pride Of Arras has made such giant strides, from a Sandown maiden last August to winning the most reputable Derby trial, also suggests he is a fast learner.

Saturday's race is the complete test of a thoroughbred; the winner will need to handle the course, he will need class (speed) and also stamina to cope with a mile and a half which, on standard times, is more testing than Ascot or The Curragh.

Two furlongs out, there is an invisible wall. It's where the non-stayers begin to check out and there was no greater example of this than Jim Bolger's hitherto unbeaten 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach, who folded up quickly in 2013 after racing much too freely.

As far as staying power is concerned, Pride Of Arras looks on relatively safe ground as, while his sire New Bay is an influence at around nine furlongs, the other side of his pedigree shouts out a mile-and-a-half as the dam Parnell's Dream won twice at the distance.

Further back in the pedigree appear luminaries such as Brian Boru, winner of the St Leger, and the smart Sir Michael Stoute-trained Sea Moon, a three time winner at the Derby trip including in the Hardwicke Stakes and the Great Voltigeur.

Their dam, Eva Luna, was a useful staying mare for Sir Henry Cecil winning the Galtres (1m4f) and Park Hill Stakes (1m6f) at three before making the frame in the Jockey Club Cup and Henry 11 Stakes later on.

Should the forecasted rain get into the ground, there is also plenty of soft going form in the family. Moreover, the way Pride Of Arras hit the line at York would certainly indicate that he may be even better over an extra furlong and a half, and he should have the of my Leeds-based paymasters as he's Yorkshire born-and-bred.

So, gradely, gradely, what could possibly go wrong?

It's a big field and some are in for a punt and not many are absolutely guaranteed to stay.

One is Ruling Court. Godolphin's 2000 Guineas winner boasts the best form following the impressive victory of Field Of Gold, who chased him home at Newmarket, in the Irish Guineas.

William Buick's mount has lots of speed and could easily be a class apart but his dam was a miler and a sister to Johann Strauss who was best at seven furlongs or a mile.

Being a son of Justify, the sire of last year's winner City Of Troy, out of a High Chaparral (the 2002 Derby winner) mare should in theory produce just enough stamina but it's not quite certain.

In contrast, there is little doubt that Aidan O'Brien's trio Lambourn are all more than likely stayers but the vibes haven't been so strong compared to some years.

There are others in the field who can tick the stamina box but don't look good enough or are taking a steep rise in class. But it’s always possible that one horse will take a massive step forward.

The last three Derby winners have included two favourites (Desert Crown and City Of Troy) and the 9/2 chance Auguste Rodin.

In previous years, there were a few shocks - Wings Of Eagles at 40/1, Masar 16/1, Serpentine 25/1 and Adayar 16/1 - but, despite the big field and the usual need for luck in running, the top four or five in the betting appear to have strong credentials and it's more than likely that this year's winner will start at single figure odds.

Over possibly the most testing mile and a half in the world, Pride Of Arras has the speed, probable stamina - and the family history to win.

He's trained by one of the best in the business and will be ridden by perhaps the most upwardly mobile young jockey in the country who has already won an Arc.

He won the best Derby trial in impressive style, looks open to more improvement after just two runs and, to top it all off - and this is the most significant point - he was made in God's own county and should have plenty of Yorkshire grit in what could be a rough race with 19 runners.

In the likely presence of royalty on Saturday, balding or otherwise, could this be another State Occasion?

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