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The Horse Watchers will be sponsored by Timeform

Martin Dixon analysis of The Horse Watchers' runners, including at Epsom


Martin Dixon of The Horse Watchers gives his verdict on the team's runners, including a few at Epsom's prestigious Derby Festival.

Thursday runners

Stella Hogan - 20:17 Chelmsford

She's unpenalised for her Kempton win last week. Mason [Paetel] rode her for the first time and rode her really well, and he's able to claim his full 7 lb this time. With his claim she's effectively running off 4 lb lower if you take that into .

She's a course-and-distance winner and has been very consistent all year really. She should have a good chance if the race develops in the right way for her - she needs to be covered up and delivered reasonably late to be seen to best advantage.

I think this is a slightly tougher race than the one she won at Kempton because there are quite a lot of three-year-olds in here open to some improvement, but she should give a good .

City Captain - 20:47 Chelmsford

I think he's a horse with quite a bit in hand of his mark. We were confident he would take a bit of beating at Pontefract, and while he only just managed to win, the form has worked out well for a low-level race. The second, Perfidia, has been runner-up another couple of times since, while the third home, Mister Sky Blue, was a next-time-out winner. City Captain's only gone up 2 lb for that.

We ran him over a stiff six at Pontefract but feel like seven furlongs, which he tackles here, might be his optimum trip. He ran well when fourth at this track for his previous yard on his handicap debut last September, and he actually had today's favourite Adelaide Bay behind him on that occasion.

We couldn't run him for a period after his win at Pontefract because the ground was too quick, but we're happy to run him on the all-weather and he seems in good form at home and I still think he's a well-handicapped horse. He should have a very good chance.

Listen: Epsom podcast

Friday runner

Rhoscolyn - 17:10 Epsom

I thought he ran really well when sixth at Chester last weekend and it looked like he was coming to the boil. He's had a very similar preparation to what he had coming into this race last year. He had an extra race at Ascot last year, in the Victoria Cup, but he ran in the same races at Thirsk, Haydock and Chester before he came here and won this.

He's off the same handicap mark as he was last year, for both of his wins last season, so he's a well-handicapped horse and it looks like they are going to get the rain in time for him to have his conditions. I think he should have a very good chance. His record tells us that softer than good at Epsom or Goodwood is his bag and he's like clockwork when he goes to those places under those conditions. Given his record we've got to be pretty confident of a big run for him.

Saturday runners

Hornsea Bay - 17:00 Epsom

Hornsea Bay has been gelded since he disappointed at Newmarket. We've always felt like we were going to step him up in trip and that a mile and a quarter, at least, would be more his distance as that's what he's bred for. I think Newmarket was the eye-opener that he's very much ready for it.

The ground was a bit quick for him and he didn't every really go the gallop, and he just didn't fire. He was gelded the following week and that will have done him a bit of good as he was getting a bit revved up before his races and maybe not handling the preliminaries that well. I hope the gelding operation will help keep a lid on him and calm him down a bit.

He seems to be in good form and Dave [O'Meara] is having a lot more winners now than he was in April and early-May. The stable seems to be firing on all cylinders which is a positive.

It looks like they're going to get quite a lot of rain at Epsom on Saturday so it could go pretty soft by the end of racing, but he's out of a mare that won on soft ground so the pedigree would be a strong pointer to him handling those conditions. It's well worth a go and I think we'll see a different horse on Saturday to the one last time.

Read: Oaks and Derby pedigree guide

Intervention - 17:40 Epsom

He's on a workable mark and ran well at Brighton last time. He ran in this race 12 months ago and finished a bit down the field but he wasn't disgraced and we're taking a roll of the dice for valuable prize money. If things work out and he's on his best form he has the ability to be competitive off his rating.

Sanat - 17:45 Doncaster

He's going the right way. He's up to a mark of 83 and has improved 10 lb since we bought him. He's won a couple of times and went close at Southwell last week, and he seems to have come out of that well, so we're happy to run him again quickly.

I feel like Doncaster is a track that should play to his strengths. It's a level track, he didn't really handle Newmarket the time before but was straight back to form at Southwell. He's got a drawn in stall 5 that should enable him to get plenty of cover and it looks like there will be a strong pace which is what he wants. A strongly-run five furlongs on a flat track is pretty much spot on for him.

We've decided to put some cheekpieces on him. He hasn't really been doing anything wrong and has been improving, but he has that slightly awkward way of going when he's in the clear - he can hang and not look the easiest ride under strong pressure - so we're going to experiment with the cheekpieces and see if they improve him in of application.

Baldomero - 17:45 Doncaster

They are forecast to have a bit of rain over the next 48 hours but whether it will be soft enough for him is open to question. He won and made all of the running over a longer trip here last year, and we want to take another look at him over five furlongs. He's still probably working his way back to form.


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