Pedigree Preview: What does the breeding say about main contenders in Betfred Oaks and Derby?

Delacroix – can he overcome the ‘Dubawi factor’?

Delacroix has made himself a leading Derby contender after his two wins at Leopardstown this season in the Ballysax Stakes and the Derby Trial, following a path taken by Aidan O’Brien’s first two Derby winners Galileo and High Chapparal more than 20 years ago.

Delacroix’s latest win was impressive, characterised by a strong finish which suggests he’s likely to stay another couple of furlongs at Epsom. But anyone betting on Delacroix will also be betting on him to erase the poor record of his sire in the Derby.

Dubawi has had nine runners to date in seven different editions of the Derby but none of them has finished in the first four. He’s had his share of long-shots, but there were others who could have been expected to fare much better, including One Ruler who was 17/2 when failing to stay in sixth behind longer-priced stablemate Adayar in 2021 and Ancient Wisdom who was sent off at 6/1 when running a flat race in eighth behind City of Troy last year.

Both One Ruler and Ancient Wisdom had won the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket at two, a race Delacroix won himself last year. It would be ironic if Dubawi’s first Derby winner were to represent the ‘rival’ Coolmore team after five unsuccessful attempts so far by Godolphin-owned Dubawi colts.

But Dubawi’s record at Epsom does at least read better now than it did this time last year after being responsible for the first two home in the Oaks 12 months ago, Ezeliya and Dance Sequence. Dubawi ran in the Derby himself in 2005 and finished eight lengths third behind Motivator, running below the high-class form he showed both beforehand and afterwards at a mile.

That was six years after his sire Dubai Millennium met the only defeat of his outstanding career when sent off favourite for the Derby; like his son, that was his only try at a mile and a half. It took another champion sire, Sadler’s Wells, a long time to sire his first Derby winner, eventually doing so when Galileo was successful in 2001, followed a year later by High Chaparral.

They came from Sadler’s Wells’ thirteenth and fourteenth crops, but Dubawi’s wait has been longer still; Delacroix is from his sixteenth crop. And while it seemed only a matter of time before Sadler’s Wells’ luck changed in the Derby – he sired five runners-up before Galileo’s breakthrough victory – as we’ve seen, Dubawi is yet to get any of his darts near the bull.

Putting Dubawi’s Derby record to one side, Delacroix’s stamina for the Derby trip seemingly looks assured given the stamina shown by his smart half-sister Grateful last season. She won three times, notably the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu over a mile and three quarters on Arc weekend.

But it’s odds on that she owed her stamina to her sire Galileo rather than her dam Tepin, which, in Delacroix’s case, means he’s relying heavily on Dubawi to see him home over the additional two furlongs. Tepin was a high-class mare who won 13 of her 23 races, with most of her wins coming over a mile in North America.

The two most significant wins of her career came during an eight-race winning streak that included the Breeders’ Cup Mile as a four-year-old and the following season’s Queen Anne Stakes.

She was by Bernstein, a smart son of Storm Cat, who won at up to seven furlongs for Aidan O’Brien, while O’Brien also trained top-class sprinter Stravinsky, the sire of Tepin’s unraced dam. If Delacroix does end up staying the Derby trip, therefore, it’s unlikely that his dam can take much of the credit.

Pride of Arras – guaranteed stayer from the family of a Derby winner

If the combination of Dubawi’s poor Derby record and being out of a miler raise doubts about Delacroix having a Derby-winning pedigree, there are no such concerns surrounding the Dante winner Pride of Arras.

He might not have such a ‘classy’ pedigree as the favourite, at least close up, but he comes from a really stout family of classic winners and is bred to relish the step up to a mile and a half. It could be, therefore, that one of Dubawi’s sons will beat him to siring a Derby winner as Pride of Arras is by New Bay, winner of the Prix du Jockey Club and who proved at least as good over a mile and a half when winning the Prix Niel and finishing third in the Arc.

Interestingly, Juddmonte have supplemented their own son of New Bay into the Derby field, New Ground. While Pride of Arras was bred by his owners David and Vimy Aykroyd, his pedigree is full of Juddmonte blood besides New Bay’s contribution.

His dam Parnell’s Dream is by Oasis Dream who comes from the same Juddmonte family as New Bay, resulting in Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Bahamian occurring twice four generations back in Pride of Arras’ pedigree.

Not that Oasis Dream’s speed has seemingly had much influence in this staying family as both of Parnell’s Dream’s wins came in handicaps at a mile and a half. Parnell’s Dream’s first three foals all initially won over middle-distances (two of them winners at Epsom, for what it’s worth) for Ralph Beckett and the Aykroyds before all three were sold on for successful hurdling careers for other connections.

Clearly not a career path Pride of Arras will now be following!

Having winning hurdlers as siblings would certainly be unusual for a Derby winner but Pride of Arras’ pedigree soon gets a bit more conventional for a would-be Derby winner a bit further back. His grandam Kitty O’Shea was ante-post favourite for the Oaks after winning her first two starts for Aidan O’Brien but injury prevented her running again.

By Sadler’s Wells, she would certainly have relished the Oaks trip at the very least, as she was a sister to Brian Boru who disappointed in the 2003 Derby but thrived later at three and won the St Leger. Kitty O’Shea went on to become the grandam of Loving Dream, winner of the Ribblesdale Stakes and Prix de Royallieu.

As well as Brian Boru and Kitty O’Shea, their dam Eva Luna produced another high-class colt, Sea Moon, winner of the Great Voltigeur and Hardwicke and runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Eva Luna was a smart staying mare herself, though didn’t begin her career for Henry Cecil and Khalid Abdulla until she was four when gaining her biggest win in the Park Hill Stakes.

The most notable of Eva Luna’s descendants, though, is her top-class grandson Workforce, who as well winning the Derby by seven lengths in record time in 2010, went on to win the Arc as well for Abdulla and Sir Michael Stoute.

As it happens, Pride of Arras has had a very similar Derby preparation to Workforce. Both colts won their only starts at two before one run before Epsom at three in the Dante. The only difference is that while Workforce found Cape Blanco too good at York, Pride of Arras kept his unbeaten record with a smart performance that was the best by any of this year’s trial winners.

Desert Flower – 1000 Guineas winner has stamina to prove

Two daughters of 2000 Guineas winner Night of Thunder won Group 3 races over a mile and a half last weekend – Estrange at Haydock on Saturday and Sunly at Chantilly the next day. On the face of it, that seems a confidence boost for another daughter of Night of Thunder, Desert Flower, staying the Oaks trip at Epsom on Friday. But I’m not sure that’s really the case. Estrange and Sunly have more than their sire in common; as well as their dams being half-sisters to each other, their dams are also half-sisters to St Leger winner Logician so there’s stamina in their family which will also be represented in Saturday’s Derby by Nightwalker.

1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower, on the other hand, is out of a mare who clearly didn’t stay a mile and a half on her sole attempt at the trip when down in the field in the Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot. With a tendency to race freely on occasions and often in headgear, the smart Promising Run stayed a mile and a quarter or so – she was third in the Musidora and later in the Dubai Millennium Stakes in Dubai – but did all her winning at shorter. Successful in pattern company for Saeed bin Suroor at two, three, four and five, Promising Run won the Rockfel at two before finishing only seventh in the Fillies’ Mile, a race her daughter won impressively last October. Her subsequent successes came in Turkey and Dubai.

Promising Run is by Hard Spun, a son of Danzig who was runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and later gained a Grade 1 win over seven furlongs. Promising Run’s previous foal, Aablan (by Night of Thunder’s sire Dubawi), won a substandard Solario Stakes but he hasn’t run since the age of two.

Going further back into Desert Flower’s pedigree takes us into uncharted territory for most British classic contenders as her grandam Aviacion was bred in Brazil where she won four races, including a Grade 1 contest over a mile and a quarter. She was by Know Heights, a smart French/US middle-distance performer by the 1978 Derby winner Shirley Heights. Promising Run was one of eight winners out of Aviacion. Pick of the rest was Arabian Comet, another by Dubawi. She stayed further, improving for increased tests of stamina at three and finishing second in the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over a mile and three quarters.

Whether that’s of any relevance to Desert Flower’s own stamina potential remains to be seen. Night of Thunder failed to stay in the Eclipse on his only try beyond a mile and he hasn’t been represented in an Epsom classic until now. Outsider Go Go Boots s Desert Flower as a second daughter of Night of Thunder in the Oaks field, while Tuscan Hills will be a first Derby runner for the sire on Saturday.

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Revoir – 17 years after Look Here?

It’s certainly not hard to find other fillies in the Oaks field who are more obviously bred to be suited by a mile and a half than the favourite. The Ballydoyle pair Minnie Hauk and Giselle are all but proven over the trip in any case, having won the Cheshire Oaks and Lingfield Oaks Trial respectively, and both are daughters of Frankel who has already sired a couple of Oaks winners in Anapurna and Soul Sister.

But the filly who could take the biggest step forward for going over a mile and a half for the first time is Revoir, representing Ralph Beckett and owner-breeder Julian Richmond-Watson. Connections have had Oaks success before from Revoir’s family as her grandam Look So was a half-sister to their 2008 winner Look Here. At 33/1, Look Here sprung a surprise in a big field but ran out a decisive winner by just short of four lengths in a race run at a strong gallop which clearly played to her strengths. The unique demands of Epsom clearly suited Look Here, as she was a good third in the Coronation Cup the following year when only beaten a couple of noses, having also finished third in the St Leger on her only three-year-old start after the Oaks.

Look So was by the sprinter Efisio and she did all her winning at seven furlongs and a mile, but the stamina in the family came through again when she was mated with Teofilo, producing the high-class stayer Scope. He ended his three-year-old season with a Group 1 win against older rivals in the Prix Royal-Oak and looked set for a successful four-year-old campaign when runner-up in the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury on his reappearance but sadly suffered a fatal injury on the gallops.

Another good winner out of Look So was Revoir’s dam Regardez, she too considered good enough to take her chance in the Oaks. Third in the Musidora beforehand, she faced a stiff task as a 40/1 shot at Epsom where she seemed stretched by the longer trip but soon made amends with her sights lowered over shorter, winning the listed Hoppings Stakes at Newcastle by six lengths next time out.

Regardez has already produced a smart filly in Remarquee, though being by Kingman she was always unlikely to have the stamina to be an Oaks filly. She did contest the 1000 Guineas though, having won the Fred Darling beforehand, and while she didn’t give her running at Newmarket, she fared much better at Royal Ascot, finishing second in the Coronation Stakes and filling the same place in the Falmouth Stakes.

Her half-sister Revoir is more stoutly bred, being a daughter of Study of Man who has already sired a very smart filly from his first crop in Kalpana, a creditable third on her recent reappearance in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. As the winner of her only start at two, a fillies’ maiden at Nottingham, and second in her Oaks trial, Revoir goes to Epsom with identical form figures to Look Here 17 years earlier. Look Here had finished second in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield beforehand, while Revoir was beaten a short head by Qilin Queen in the Fillies’ Trial at Newbury.

The bare form of that listed contest leaves both the first two with something to find at Epsom, but Revoir gave the impression she’s capable of reversing places with Qilin Queen in this rematch and, with scope to improve further over a mile and a half, she looks capable of running into a place at the very least.

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